【Paris, Franc】How Are Fashion Trends Born?

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Editor’s Note

This article explores the crucial role of trend forecasting bureaus in the fashion industry, detailing how they analyze cultural and social signals to predict future styles and compile their insights into influential “trend books” for designers and brands.

Lunettes du designer japonais Tsumori Chisato lors d'un défilé des collections prêt-à-porter printemps-été 2013, en septembre 2012 à Paris. REUTERS/Charles Platiau
The Role of Trend Forecasting Agencies

To anticipate upcoming fashions, the fashion industry relies on the expertise of very particular agencies: trend forecasting bureaus.

The “Trend Books”

If you trace the origin of a trend, you often end up at a “trend forecasting bureau.” These agencies offer the fashion industry players “trend books.” These are large magazines, sold at a high price – up to 4,000 euros – and filled with photos, sketches, and explanatory texts. They present, 18 months in advance, what the trends will be for a given season.

A Rational Methodology

However, trend bureaus employ neither fortune tellers, crystal balls, nor card readers. On the contrary, they claim a rational methodology. Pierre-François Le Louët, president of Nelly Rodi, one of the 5 historic trend bureaus, admits that in the beginning, in the 1960s, trend bureaus operated on intuition:

“But today the economic stakes are considerable. The industry weighs billions of euros. We cannot be content with guessing the future by licking a finger. So we have established a process, a method.”
Step One: Collection

First step: collection. Nelly Rodi has a network of 21 correspondents scattered around the world. They are responsible for detecting what they call in their jargon “weak signals.” They identify what is new in all sectors of society: art, consumption, distribution, culture, etc. In the infinite mass of events and novelties, the difficulty is therefore to distinguish what is meaningful and what is not. According to Pierre François Le Louët:

“It’s about determining what societies value. The local? The international? The feminine? The masculine? Rigor? Fantasy?”

But if these values may seem vague to the layperson, “weak signals” are, on the contrary, very concrete elements. It could be the opening of a surf shop in the heart of downtown Tokyo, the boom of tinted skincare creams in Seoul, or, in a completely different domain, the emergence of nationalist movements…

The Trend Committees

The correspondents collect this data and send it to the trend bureaus. Then, twice a year, the “trend committees” meet. Various professions are present: stylists of course, but also colorists or sociologists. After cross-referencing and analyzing the data, they create themes, four per season.
For the winter 2013-2014, Nelly Rodi thus developed the theme “Modesty.” Pierre-François Le Louët gives a few examples, among a hundred, of what inspired this theme:

“The development of farmer’s markets, that of local currencies, fashion personalities who want to have a modest approach, the explosion of the Williamsburg neighborhood in New York, the new Scandinavian designers who value authenticity and do not hold fashion shows, the natural materials used by designers…”

Each theme is associated with an ambiance, colors, materials, shapes, etc. All of this is illustrated in the trend books and accompanied by socio-economic analyses. Each theme is declined in different areas: fashion clothing but also design, tableware, makeup, cosmetics, wearable technologies, bath linens…

Not Working in a Bubble

But according to Sophie Levasseur, collection director at Camaïeu, trend books are not the only source of inspiration for stylists:

“Many things can influence us. What happens on the street, a movie released in theaters, fashion shows… But the [trend] books are important to know if we are on the right track and to avoid working in a bubble. I look at all the books and then I take the one I like the most, the one that challenges me. But I cannot use everything systematically. We analyze the book, we digest it, we translate it. And then we must respect the style of Camaïeu. We know our customers, we know what they like. The major directions, I have to translate them into t-shirts.”
The Acceleration of Fashion Cycles

Another major source of inspiration for stylists: the January and March fashion shows. They influence what will be sold a few months, or even a few weeks later in stores. The fashion industry is now in a process of permanent updating. Everything moves very quickly, according to Pascaline Wilhelm, fashion director of the Premiere Vision trade show:

“We are in an extremely volatile market. Products must be constantly renewed, the race against time has accelerated extraordinarily. Before there were two collections per year. Now, we have capsule collections that last two weeks, we have specific collections for the holidays… The advent of brands like H&M and Zara has changed everything. We produce in a much shorter time. They have pulled the market towards much more flexibility. In 15 years, the industry has undergone a real industrial revolution.”

In case of urgency – particularly bad weather in summer, for example – Camaïeu can thus design, produce, and distribute new products in 6 weeks.

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⏰ Published on: May 03, 2013