Editor’s Note
After a record-breaking 2022, the watch auction market has cooled significantly, with sales declining 18% in the first half of 2023. This analysis suggests the era of exceptional growth may be over, signaling a return to more typical market conditions.
Following an extraordinary year in 2022, the auction market recorded an 18 percent decline in the first half of 2023. The exceptional growth in watch auctions appears to be over, and 2023 is unlikely to be another exceptional year.
The current Hammertrack Report indicates that the decline was driven by fewer auctions and a decrease in the number of lots sold per event. The total value in the first half of the year was 312 million Swiss Francs (CHF). This suggests a hangover mood after the exceptional year 2022. However, while the number of lots sold decreased, the average value per sale exceeded the previous year’s figure, albeit only slightly by 100 CHF, from 49,901 to 50,000 CHF. Therefore, a look at the detailed data is worthwhile.
It is the strong increase in lots sold in the million-range that supports the overall auction market and is decisive for the increased average selling price. Auction revenue in this segment rose by 38 percent to 77.2 million CHF in the comparison period, once again underscoring the high collector interest in rare timepieces from established brands. In the first half of 2023, 35 exceptional and sometimes unique lots surpassed the 1-million-mark, a clear upward trend compared to 29 in the same period last year. Surprisingly, in contrast to previous years, only two independent companies – Roger Smith and F.P. Journe – are represented in the top 10. Patek Philippe confirmed its dominance in million-range watch lots more than usual: the brand accounted for seven lots in the top 10.
The situation in the core business paints a different picture. Lots for auctions in the six-figure range show a dramatic decline. The share of the core business area decreased from around 57 percent in previous years to now 45 percent of the total watch auction market. The situation is similar in the low-price segment (under 100,000 CHF). Auction sales fell by 12 percent and currently account for 30 percent of the auction market.
And not only have there been shifts among the watch lots. There have also been changes among the auction houses themselves. Phillips (in collaboration with Bacs & Russo), the strong market leader in the field of watch auctions, took second place in the first half of the year and was surpassed by Christie’s. Christie’s revenue increased by 7 percent to 110.5 million CHF.
The second half of the year will show whether auction houses can convince with new strategies and a larger offering of high-quality contemporary watches.