Editor’s Note
This article highlights the sharp rally in Shanghai silver futures, driven by heightened safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and shifting U.S. trade policies. It underscores silver’s notable volatility and its leading role in the precious metals sector at the start of the Lunar New Year.
On the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, Shanghai silver futures took the lead, surging significantly by 11% during the session and leading the gains in the precious metals sector. During the Spring Festival holiday, factors such as complex overseas geopolitical situations and changes in US tariff policies have fueled a rise in safe-haven sentiment, once again attracting capital to precious metals.
Silver is still expected to be the most volatile and resilient star commodity in the market by 2026, but its upward trend requires further confirmation from a bull run in gold.
With the US deploying heavy troops to the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, and the Iran nuclear talks shrouded in uncertainty, the risk of war has suddenly intensified. Currently, both sides are in a critical pre-war window period. The third round of indirect negotiations is scheduled for February 26th, focusing on Iran’s uranium enrichment limits.
The US Supreme Court ruled that the tariff policy formulated by former President Trump under the IEEPA was illegal and must be stopped with refunds issued. However, this does not affect his authority to impose tariffs through other domestic laws and regulations. Subsequently, the US President imposed a 10% tariff on global imports, and on the 21st, announced an increase in this newly imposed “global import tariff” rate from 10% to 15%. On the 23rd, US media reported that the US government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on approximately six industries, including large-scale batteries and energy storage, citing “national security” concerns.
The performance of precious metals during the Spring Festival holiday once again demonstrated their sensitivity to macro events. Short-term silver volatility has intensified, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situations and overseas tariff adjustments.
Author: Li Qi
Practitioner Qualification: F3046227
Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0016145
