Editor’s Note
This article discusses a recent radar lock-on incident involving a Chinese military aircraft and a Japanese Self-Defense Force aircraft. The event occurs amid heightened regional tensions following recent political statements concerning Taiwan.
While Japan-China relations have deteriorated following Prime Minister Takachi’s parliamentary statement characterizing a Taiwan contingency as a “survival-threatening situation,” the situation escalated on December 6 when a Chinese military aircraft conducted radar lock-ons twice against a Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) aircraft over international waters southeast of Okinawa’s main island.
The Prime Minister’s remarks risk not only worsening Japan-China relations but also creating a serious crisis for Japan’s and East Asia’s security. It is important to note that while China’s reaction is excessive, it is also thoroughly calculated.
China first approached U.S. President Trump, securing an understanding that he would not back Prime Minister Takachi on this matter. It also reaffirmed support for the “One China” principle from major European countries like Germany and France.
It is likely that China will continue to escalate measures, while also making arrangements to ensure Western nations do not unite in criticizing China.
If the first stage involved halting the resumption of seafood imports, discouraging tourists and students from visiting Japan, and suspending exchange events, the second stage will likely introduce measures to economically pressure Japan. These could include detaining Japanese nationals, applying anti-monopoly laws to Japanese companies, and restricting rare earth exports.
Furthermore, China may not hesitate to take actions involving military provocation against Japan, such as the radar lock-on against the SDF aircraft. The joint navigation of Chinese and Russian bombers near Japanese waters was also likely intended as a show of force. The probability of an accidental clash has become extremely high.
To avoid a serious security crisis, it is crucial for Japan to have a proper understanding of four key issues.
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