Editor’s Note
Today’s forex trading will be shaped by three key factors: the trajectories of the US dollar, Japanese yen, and euro; the release of the US Consumer Confidence Index; and ongoing speculation regarding the future path of US monetary policy. These elements are likely to drive significant market volatility.
The focus of today’s forex market lies in the ‘Direction of the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Euro’, the ‘Release of the US Consumer Confidence Index’, and ‘Speculation on US Monetary Policy’.
Market attention today will be focused on the following US economic indicators and events:
- 08:15 (JST): Speech by Williams, President of the New York Fed (voting member)
- 21:30 (JST): US Durable Goods Orders
- 22:00 (JST): US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- 22:00 (JST): US House Price Index
- 23:00 (JST): US Consumer Confidence Index
- 26:00 (JST): US 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Outside the US, attention will be on:
- 10:30 (JST): Release of RBA Meeting Minutes (from the August 12th meeting)
- 27:30 (JST): Speech by Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada
Other factors that will be important include:
- Direction of the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Euro
- Speculation on US monetary policy (next policy announcement is September 17th)
- Movements in US Treasury yields (US long-term interest rates)
- Release of high-impact US economic indicators (Consumer Confidence Index on the 26th → Revised Q2 GDP on the 28th → PCE Deflator on the 29th)
- Statements from US President Trump
- Movements in major stock markets (centered on the US)
- Statements by financial authorities and key figures (focus on Fed officials and BOJ board members → BOJ board member Nakagawa is scheduled to speak on the 28th this week. Also watch for statements from US President Trump and US Treasury Secretary Bessent)
- End-of-month factors for August (this Friday, August 29th, is the last business day of the month)
- Speculation on Japanese monetary policy (next policy announcement is September 19th)
- Speculation on Eurozone monetary policy (next policy announcement is September 11th)
- Earnings announcements from major US companies (final phase → NVIDIA earnings after US market close on the 27th)
- The fact that next Monday, September 1st, is a US holiday (markets closed → US enters a long weekend)
- Developments and speculation regarding US tariff negotiations with various countries
- Movements in commodity markets, centered on crude oil and gold
- Russia-Ukraine situation
The forex market started the week at levels similar to Friday’s close. However, following the wave of US dollar selling triggered by Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium over the weekend, the trend has reversed at the start of the week. A trend of buying the US dollar, selling the Japanese yen, and selling the Euro has become dominant. USD/JPY has risen to the high 147-yen range, and EUR/USD has fallen to the low 1.16 range.
- 10:30 (JST): Release of RBA Meeting Minutes (from the August 12th meeting) → The Australian dollar is prone to significant movement based on speculation regarding future monetary policy.
- 08:15 (JST): Speech by Williams, President of the New York Fed (voting member)
- 21:30 (JST): US Durable Goods Orders & [Ex-Transportation]
- 22:00 (JST): US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- 22:00 (JST): US House Price Index
- 23:00 (JST): US Consumer Confidence Index
- 26:00 (JST): US 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
