Editor’s Note
This article examines the factors behind November’s significant rise in fuel prices, including tax adjustments, biofuel policies, and exchange rate pressures. We provide this analysis to help readers understand the economic forces impacting daily costs.
Gasoline prices at the pump rose by up to 7% in November, driven by tax updates, biofuels, and the lag against the dollar.
In the government of Javier Milei, officials often repeat that they are liberals, but above all, pragmatists. With that explanation, they seek to justify the dynamics of regulated prices before the elections and their subsequent behavior. This explains the abrupt increase recorded by fuels in November, with average increases of between 6% and 7%, after having maintained a stable value between September and late October.
Since YPF decided to stop reporting price increases, after adopting a policy of sectoral updates and variations in line with supply and demand, the fuel market no longer has its main reference. The state-controlled oil company is the sector leader and concentrates 57% of gasoline and diesel shipments.
In recent days, the average price per liter of super gasoline in the City of Buenos Aires (CABA) stood at $1630, while the premium variety reached $1850. This implies cumulative increases in the year of 47% and 35%, respectively, compared to the values at the end of 2024. Both increases remained above the cumulative inflation for the same period, close to 30%. In 2024, the opposite occurred: fuels increased by an average of 100%, while inflation reached 118%.
Therefore, according to sector sources, there was a lag in prices. They also explain that the wholesale exchange rate rose around 42% in the last year, although most of the increase occurred from April, when the Government implemented the exchange rate band scheme and abandoned the policy of monthly devaluation at 1%.
In November, after the legislative elections, the Secretariat of Energy took the opportunity to update the values of biofuels and taxes on liquid fuels (ICL) and carbon dioxide (IDC). On average, in the last year, biofuels rose 50% (bioethanol 37% and biodiesel 67%), while the tax on diesel increased 53% and that on gasoline, 45%.
The impact of the fuel increase on general inflation will be known this Thursday, when Indec publishes the consumer price index (CPI) for November, which is estimated to be 2.3%.
The increases in gasoline and diesel occurred despite the international price of a barrel of oil falling by about $10 in the last year, from $74 to less than $64.
The analyst also indicated that local prices are below the historical average. Compared to the values recorded between January 2010 and last October, today they are 2.5% cheaper in dollars and 12.8% lower in constant pesos. Compared to the average of the last decade, however, they are 2.3% higher in dollars, but 8.7% lower in real terms.
This implies that, in relation to purchasing power, fuels remain relatively accessible. In fact, although mass consumption fell and economic activity did not recover, YPF’s fuel sales grew 6% compared to last year, according to its latest quarterly balance sheet.
Starting in December, local prices should stabilize, although the sector recalls that they depend on four factors: exchange rate, international crude oil price, taxes, and biofuels.
For 2026, the industry expects a readjustment of regional prices, as anticipated by the president and CEO of YPF, Horacio Marín, to correct “inequities.” The Patagonian provinces would have average increases greater than the rest of the country, according to sector estimates.