Editor’s Note
The rise of instant retail is reshaping consumer expectations and retail competition. This analysis explores the key drivers—evolving consumer demand, technological innovation, and omnichannel integration—and argues that the core of this shift lies in the fundamental reimagining of the consumption scenario itself.
The rapid rise of instant retail is driven by the upgrading of consumer demand, technological advancements, and the development trend of omnichannel retail. The essence of the instant retail competition is the reconstruction of consumption scenarios.
As a leader in instant retail, Meituan maintains its top industry position with its dual-engine strategy of “instant delivery + local merchants.” Its Q3 2024 financial report shows platform instant delivery orders reached 7.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%.
In 2025, Meituan has compressed instant retail fulfillment time to under 28 minutes through an intelligent delivery matrix combining drones and autonomous vehicles. Its AI dispatch system achieves millisecond-level order breakdown of 3,000 orders per second during peak hours, driving daily orders for its Flash Warehouses to exceed 1.5 million. Morgan Stanley predicts its instant retail market share has reached 60%, with its leading advantage continuing to expand.
JD.com is reconstructing the competitive logic with its “supply chain + instant delivery” approach. Leveraging its Asia No.1 smart warehouses and Dada Now delivery, JD.com has compressed the delivery time for high-average-order-value goods like home appliances and electronics to 30 minutes. JD’s food delivery service is not just a standalone business but a crucial part of its instant retail strategy. By integrating the “Seconds Delivery” channel, the Dada rider network, and main site traffic, JD aims to use high-frequency food delivery orders to drive growth in lower-frequency instant retail categories like fresh produce, 3C electronics, and pharmaceuticals, creating a synergistic effect between “e-commerce + local services.”
Since independently launching its “Hourly Delivery” portal in October 2023, Douyin’s instant retail GMV saw a quarter-on-quarter growth of 166% in Q4 2023. Its growth rate gradually moderated to the 50%-80% range in 2024, making it one of the fastest-growing platforms in the instant retail field. Through a new model of “content seeding + instant purchase,” non-standard products like cosmetics and apparel have experienced explosive growth. Sources close to Douyin reveal that for some cosmetic brands, the hourly delivery channel already accounts for 15% of offline store sales.
Ele.me’s instant logistics center has become its second growth curve, focusing on high-margin categories like pharmaceuticals, supermarkets, and alcohol, and launching an “All-in-One Supermarket” section.
The explosion of instant retail is forcing traditional retailers to accelerate their transformation. They are no longer content with being “supporting actors” in instant retail but are vying for a voice by building their own warehousing and delivery networks, partnering with platforms, and innovating models, leveraging their scale, capital, and resource advantages for rapid expansion.
Sam’s Club is currently the “top player” in the forward warehouse track. In the first three quarters of 2024, Sam’s Club China’s net sales climbed to $15.2 billion, approximately RMB 100 billion, with online sales accounting for 55%. Among these, express delivery orders based on cloud warehouses constitute about 70% of Sam’s e-commerce order volume. Currently, Sam’s has over 500 forward warehouses in the Chinese market, with coverage radius shrinking from 10 km to 3 km. Instant delivery accounts for over 40% of member orders. Its forward warehouses are known for “high average order value and high repurchase rate,” with SKUs streamlined to 4,000, focusing on the essential needs of middle-class families. Daily orders per warehouse exceed 1,000, with industry-leading profit margins.
After forming a strategic partnership with Meituan, Walmart China’s mini-program order volume increased by 120% year-on-year, and it captured post-8 PM consumption scenarios through its “Nighttime Special Delivery” service. Its financial reports show that instant retail business contributed 25% of the annual revenue increment.
Retail giant Yonghui, while undergoing transformation, also emphasizes instant retail, attempting to quickly complete its layout with a “warehouse-store integration” model. Recently, Yonghui piloted “24/7 All-Day Delivery” in Fuzhou, reducing nighttime order costs by 30% through an intelligent order allocation system, and launched “Late-Night Dining”套餐 combinations, increasing the average order value during early morning hours to RMB 78.
As competition in instant retail intensifies, the endgame is not necessarily a “winner-takes-all” scenario but rather jointly expanding the ecosystem. We observe that the future industry will compete around three major inflection points.
First is technology-driven innovation. Unmanned delivery and AI dispatch are key to cost reduction. JD.com plans to cover 50 cities with unmanned vehicle delivery by 2027. By the end of 2024, Meituan’s drone delivery had opened 53 routes, cumulatively delivering over 450,000 orders. Its autonomous delivery vehicle service covers hundreds of communities, significantly improving delivery efficiency. For example, drone delivery at the Great Wall scenic area can achieve delivery in 6 minutes and 37 seconds. Meituan’s “Smart Assistant” has increased riders’ daily order volume by 15%. If technological costs drop to a critical point, the fulfillment expense ratio could potentially be compressed from the current 15% to below 10%, releasing hundreds of billions in profit space.
Second is the expansion of categories from “emergency” to “all-scenario.” Instant retail is breaking through the boundaries of餐饮 and evolving towards “everything delivered to your home.” JD.com’s 7Fresh is piloting “30-minute delivery” for home appliances. Meituan’s Flash Grocery launched iPhone首发 sales. Sam’s Club covers high-margin categories like母婴 and health products through instant retail. In the future, healthcare (e.g., 24-hour medicine delivery) and luxury goods (e.g., Meituan’s pilot jewelry delivery合作 with LVMH) may become new growth poles.
Finally, the “capillary” battle in lower-tier markets. Saturation in first- and second-tier cities is forcing platforms to penetrate downwards. The “Instant Retail Industry Development Report (2024)” shows that in 2023, instant retail规模 in county-level markets reached RMB 150 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.42%. Meituan’s Flash Warehouse plan aims to increase to 100,000 by 2027, focusing on county markets. JD.com relies on its “Jingxi” community group-buying network to pilot an “instant retail + community裂变” model in third- and fourth-tier cities. However, challenges like low average order value and insufficient delivery density in下沉 markets仍需 be addressed through models like “shared warehousing and delivery” (e.g., multiple supermarkets sharing a forward warehouse).
Accenture research shows that among post-95s consumers, 63% believe “instant gratification” is more important than price, and 82% are willing to pay a premium for 30-minute delivery. When consumers are willing to pay an extra RMB 10 for 30-minute delivery, the underlying logic is the quantification of “time value.”
“Retail Business Review” believes that future winners will be those enterprises capable of simultaneously驾驭 “economies of scale” and “refined operations”—they must both密织 the local network and掌控 the lifeline of the supply chain. This battle has no final conclusion, only continuous evolution.