Editor’s Note
This article examines the significant divergence between international and domestic gold prices as of late December 2025, highlighting a market characterized by high-level volatility. It also notes the growing analyst focus on the potential for gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in the coming year.
On December 29, 2025, the London gold price settled at $4,532.46 per ounce, marking a significant increase over the past year. Domestically, the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Au(T+D) price closed at 1,012.2 yuan per gram. The market exhibited a pattern of high-level volatility, with subtle fluctuations capturing investor attention. Notably, several institutional analysts have turned their focus to 2026, with some suggesting the international gold price could target $5,000.
Market liquidity, global risk aversion sentiment, and physical demand are seen as core supporting factors. However, a silent battle between “value” and “price” is unfolding in the retail market, evidenced by vast price differences across channels.
In the Shuibei Jewelry Wholesale Market in Shenzhen, a major national wholesale source, the price for 999 pure gold was quoted at 1,238 yuan per gram on December 29. This contrasts sharply with branded jewelry stores in major shopping malls: Chow Tai Fook and Chow Tai Seng listed prices at 1,413 yuan/gram, Lao Feng Xiang at 1,408 yuan/gram, and China Gold at 1,398 yuan/gram. Brand premium, store rents, and design costs contribute to a difference of hundreds of yuan per gram.
This price gap extends across cities. In Beijing, Caibai Jewelry’s gold price was 1,260 yuan/gram; Shanghai’s Chow Sang Sang stores quoted 1,255 yuan/gram; and Guangzhou’s Luk Fook Jewelry priced at 1,262 yuan/gram. Prices in these major cities fall between wholesale and top-tier brand prices. Some gold stores in Hainan quoted prices between 1,275 and 1,285 yuan/gram. The maximum price difference compared to Shuibei’s lowest price reached 47 yuan per gram, meaning a consumer buying a 30-gram piece of jewelry could pay over 1,000 yuan more depending on the purchase location.
Bank gold bar prices offer another perspective. On December 29, China Construction Bank’s proprietary brand gold bar was quoted at 1,028.70 yuan/gram, up 0.12% from the previous day. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s brand gold bar price was 1,035.57 yuan/gram, a 0.73% increase. Bank of China’s gold bar quote was 1,026.70 yuan/gram, showing a slight 0.05% decline. Bank gold bar prices typically closely follow raw material gold price fluctuations with relatively low fees, making them a preferred avenue for many investors for physical gold allocation. These细微的分化 reflect slight differences in institutions’ assessments of short-term funding costs and risk.
International market dynamics directly influence domestic prices. The London spot gold price of $4,532.46/oz is within a high range since 2024. The forces driving gold higher are complex: major global central banks’ balance sheets remain large, ensuring ample market liquidity; some countries continue to increase gold’s share in foreign exchange reserves, providing solid official buying demand; and persistent geopolitical conflicts keep activating gold’s traditional safe-haven attributes. These macro factors form the foundational support for gold prices.
Physical consumption demand acts as a stabilizer. Despite volatile investment demand, rigid demand for weddings and festival gifts persists. Asian markets, especially China and India, have deep-rooted consumption habits for physical bars and jewelry. Annual sales peaks around the Spring Festival and traditional wedding seasons smooth out the剧烈波动 caused by gold’s purely financial attributes, underpinning its long-term trend.
Financial institution research reports increasingly discuss gold’s allocation value. Some viewpoints note that in an environment where real interest rates remain low in some countries, the opportunity cost of holding gold is relatively limited. Other analyses focus on the long-term trend of the US dollar index and its inverse impact on dollar-denominated gold. Still, others compare gold’s volatility with major global stock indices, emphasizing its role in diversifying portfolio risk. These专业讨论 are gradually permeating public investment awareness.
Gold mining and refining company stock prices have also risen with gold. Market funds flow not only into physical and paper gold products but also upstream companies in the gold industry chain. Miners’ profit expectations are highly correlated with gold prices, and rising prices directly improve their financials and future cash flow outlook. This联动效应 extends gold’s influence far beyond the metal itself into broader financial markets.
Technical analysts closely monitor gold’s charts, analyzing daily open, close, high, and low prices, seeking trading signals from candlestick patterns and technical indicators. The $4,532 area is seen by some as a key resistance zone, with every pullback and rebound meticulously interpreted. Changes in trading volume, open interest, and spreads between futures and spot markets are important for gauging short-term sentiment.
Retail gold market competition is intensifying. Traditional jewelry brands attract customers with strong brand heritage and extensive store networks. Emerging online gold sales platforms compete for younger consumers with relatively transparent pricing and convenient processes. Banks leverage their creditworthiness and vast customer base to dominate gold bar sales. Different channels serve clients with varying needs, forming a multi-layered retail ecosystem.
The gold recycling market is also active. As prices rise, many families cash in闲置的旧金饰 and bars. Recyclers quote prices based on international rates minus损耗 and fees, forming a parallel “exit channel” to the retail market. This market is highly price-sensitive, moving almost in sync with international prices, offering a window into民间黄金流动性.
Global Gold ETF holdings are closely tracked. These funds hold physical gold as underlying assets; their share creations and redemptions directly reflect institutional and large investors’ long-term views on gold. Sustained increases in holdings often indicate continued fund inflows, while reductions may signal profit-taking or shifting views. This data is an indicator of “smart money”动向.
Central bank gold buying has persisted for several quarters. According to the World Gold Council, many central banks are systematically increasing gold holdings to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on单一货币. This buying is based on long-term strategic asset adjustment, not short-term price moves. Official sector持续买入 provides a stable, strong buyer, altering previous supply-demand dynamics.
Inflation concerns linger for some investors. Historical data shows gold’s purchasing power preservation function is often favored during high inflation. Although global inflation has retreated from previous peaks, fears of its resurgence prompt some funds to position in gold early to hedge against potential currency devaluation.
Uncertain events in international political and economic relations often act as catalysts for short-term gold spikes. Whenever trade tensions escalate, regional conflicts intensify, or financial markets turmoil, gold prices frequently surge during trading hours. These脉冲式的上涨 reinforce its “safe-haven asset” label and attract more trend traders.
Gold mining production costs anchor the long-term price floor. The global all-in sustaining cost for major miners is roughly $1,200-$1,300 per ounce. Current prices well above this cost bring丰厚利润, incentivizing exploration and new mine development. However, bringing new mines online often takes years, limiting short-term supply elasticity.
The line between decorative and investment gold is blurring. Previously, jewelry was mainly seen as a consumer good with high workmanship fees and significant buyback discounts. Now, simple-design, low-premium bar-style jewelry is gaining popularity, satisfying both佩戴需求 and being心理上 viewed as an asset storage form. This shift further blurs gold’s界限 as a commodity and financial asset.
Reflecting on the December 29 market, every fluctuation at high levels results from the interplay of global capital flows, macroeconomic expectations, and微观市场情绪. From Shuibei’s 1,238 yuan wholesale price to branded stores’ 1,413 yuan retail price, from London’s $4,532 quote to analysts’ $5,000展望, gold’s story is never just a simple number. It is both精致饰品 worn on the wrist and沉甸甸的资产 in safes, an ancient mirror reflecting complex human nature within global financial market波动.