【Dubai, Unite】Dubai on the Brink of Bankruptcy? A Major Real Estate Crash Threatens the Desert City

Editor’s Note

Dubai’s property market continues to reach new heights, driven by high-value projects that fuse innovative design with cultural traditions. This article examines the factors behind the record-breaking boom.

Un chantier résidentiel jouxtant un immeuble d'appartements dans le quartier de Dubai Hills, aux Émirats arabes unis, le lundi 19 février 2024.
Real Estate Boom

Dubai is in the midst of a real estate boom. Extravagant projects, such as the 21-story residential tower Eywa designed by Alex Zagrebelny, exemplify this surge, blending futuristic architecture with traditional principles of Vastu Shastra. Some units are selling for between $2.7 and $7.5 million even before the expected completion in 2026.
According to Bloomberg, the real estate market in this Persian Gulf emirate is breaking records. In 2024, transactions totaled $140 billion, a 36.5% increase compared to the previous year. The second quarter of 2025 recorded 51,000 home sales, a record. Over the twelve months ending in June, the total transaction value reached $73 billion, a 41% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Trade War Boost

Dubai’s real estate market has been experiencing this growth since 2020, with the rapid reopening of borders during the Covid-19 crisis, combined with the arrival of foreign buyers (wealthy Russian investors, crypto-millionaires, and Indians) and attractive visa policies. Since then, prices have climbed by 70%.
This year, the emirate’s real estate market has been further energized by the trade war led by Donald Trump. Indeed, as reported by Bloomberg, the decline in the value of the dirham, pegged to the falling dollar, has allowed foreign buyers to increase their purchasing power.

“It’s the main driver of the market,” explains Taimur Khan, head of research for the Middle East and Africa at JLL. “You get a significant discount. And if the dollar recovers, you get another increase in your returns upon exit,” he points out.
Le nouveau projet absorbera plus de 20 millions de mètres cubes d'eau par jour.

According to experts, Dubai has never seen a better time to invest in property.

Speculative Frenzy and Real Estate Crash

But this rapid growth raises concerns. The proliferation of developers and the sharp increase in supply – nearly 250,000 homes under construction, a +30% increase – could weigh on margins and signal a risk of overheating.

“Almost every week, we meet three new developers we had never heard of before,” explains Sean McCauley, CEO of Devmark, a consultancy for developers in Dubai, to Bloomberg.

Land prices have skyrocketed, he explains, which weighs on the potential margins of new players. And he asserts:

“It will become increasingly difficult to make the numbers work.”

In the past, Dubai has already found itself in a speculative frenzy that brought it to the brink of bankruptcy. Bloomberg notably mentions the artificial archipelago “The World” in 2008. The fall in prices and the increasing debt of the parent company, Dubai World, required a bailout by the neighboring state of Abu Dhabi. The developer was ultimately forced to suspend all its projects when the global financial crisis erupted. Subsequently, the emirate suffered a second real estate crash after the collapse of oil prices in 2014.

Le gouvernement de Dubaï a décidé de lever la taxe de 30% sur l’alcool.

These past real estate excesses are a reminder that Dubai remains vulnerable to economic cycles and speculation. However, developers and experts believe that the current market is based on real buyers rather than mere speculators. Projects now aim to attract long-term residents and wealthy retirees.

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⏰ Published on: August 21, 2025