【India】Diamond Market Outlook: Russia’s ALROSA CEO Says India Will Adapt to US Tariffs; Natural Stones to Stay Resilient as Synthetic Prices Plunge

Editor’s Note

ALROSA CEO Pavel Maryinchev suggests that recent U.S. tariff increases on polished diamonds from India will pose only a short-term disruption, expressing confidence in the Indian industry’s ability to adapt.

Diamond market outlook: Russia's miner ALROSA CEO says India will adapt to US tariffs; natural stones to stay resilient as synthetic prices plunge
ALROSA CEO’s Outlook on US Tariffs and Market Adaptation

Pavel Maryinchev, CEO of Russian diamond miner ALROSA, believes that the recent US tariff hikes on polished diamonds imported from India will present only a temporary challenge. He expressed confidence that India’s cutting and polishing sector will be able to adapt and minimize the long-term impact.

“According to GJEPC data, the amount of diamonds purchased by Indian cutting and polishing businesses surged in August and September and fell in October. Our expectations are that the high import tariffs will not have a long-lasting impact, and businesses will be able to adapt and minimize the effect,”

he told ET. He added that a portion of the additional costs would likely be passed on to end consumers, though luxury buyers are less price-sensitive and retail brands might absorb some costs by temporarily reducing markups.

Supply Constraints and Market Stabilization

Maryinchev highlighted ALROSA’s position as the world’s largest diamond miner, responsible for over 30% of global output. He noted that with no major new deposits being discovered and existing mines yielding less, the declining supply is helping to stabilize the market.

“We are already seeing less price volatility in 2025 than we did in the previous two years,”

he said. ALROSA has adjusted its operations, suspending production at less-profitable mines. After producing 33 million carats in 2024, output is expected to fall another 10–15% this year.

Asian Demand and Recovery Signals

Despite challenges faced by Indian cutting and polishing units in recent years, key markets including the US, Europe, the Middle East, and India continue to show robust demand. Maryinchev pointed to strong double-digit sales growth from major Indian retailers in Q3 2025 and encouraging data from China as positive signs.

“Inventories in all parts of the diamond pipeline have been gradually returning to normal. I believe that the right conditions for prices to recover are taking shape,”

he said, citing stable global jewellery demand and declining diamond production as key recovery factors.

Synthetic Diamonds Losing Appeal

Maryinchev stated that concerns about synthetic diamonds replacing natural stones are fading. He highlighted a steep plunge in prices for lab-grown diamonds due to the ease of mass production.

“We are witnessing a plunge in prices for man-made diamonds… in the third quarter of 2025 alone, wholesale prices dropped by almost 40% year-on-year,”

he said, noting the price difference with natural diamonds now exceeds 95%. He argued that synthetic stones have moved into the category of “expensive costume jewellery,” lacking the uniqueness and history that luxury consumers value in natural diamonds.

Environmental Positioning of Natural Diamonds

Maryinchev emphasized that ALROSA’s ability to guarantee natural origin is a key competitive advantage. He countered claims that lab-grown stones are more environmentally friendly.

“Diamond synthesis requires vast amounts of energy and causes air pollution. International studies put the carbon emissions from lab-grown diamonds at 300–500 kg CO₂ per carat,”

he said.

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⏰ Published on: December 12, 2025