Editor’s Note
This article highlights ALROSA’s perspective on recent market shifts, noting that while U.S. tariffs have caused short-term fluctuations in Indian diamond imports, the company views India as a vital long-term partner and expects the industry to adapt.
ALROSA Sees India as a Key Partner
Pavel Maryinchev, CEO-Chairman of ALROSA, said that companies need time to adapt to the changing market conditions after the US imposed tariffs.
“According to GJEPC data, the amount of diamonds purchased by Indian cutting and polishing businesses surged in August and September and fell in October. Our expectations are that the high import tariffs will not have a long-lasting impact, and businesses will be able to adapt and minimize the effect,” he told ET.
“We anticipate that there will still be no major changes, at least in the long term. There’s a high probability that the rising U.S. tariffs on polished diamond imports from India will have the same consequences as those in many other industries: some of the extra costs will unfortunately be passed on to consumers. In this sense, the luxury jewelry market stands slightly apart: historically, buyers have been less price-sensitive, so the impact on demand is less severe. Moreover, the retail sector will be able to absorb some of the extra costs by temporarily reducing markups. Some of the major international brands have been raising them in recent years, including through price increases that outpace inflation,” he said.
It is possible that diamond jewelry manufacturers will need time to adapt to the new tariffs and shape alternative production processes that are more appropriate in the circumstances. However, we are nearing the Christmas shopping season in the Western markets, which is usually followed by restocking. So, we expect India’s demand for diamonds to be at a good level, once the first positive sales figures are achieved, he said.
Market Stabilization and Supply
ALROSA is the world’s largest diamond mining company. It accounts for over 30% of the global diamond output. Our reserves exceed 40% of the global total. This is an important thing to mention, especially given that no new large deposits are being discovered in the world today, and the existing ones are producing less and less. This year, the global rough diamond production is expected at 100 million carats, which is a 30%–50% decrease from six to eight years ago. Falling supply has an important stabilizing effect on the market, evening out inventories across the pipeline.
“We are already seeing less price volatility in 2025 than we did in the previous two years,” the ALROSA CEO said.
Asian Centre of Gravity
ALROSA has also adjusted its plans, temporarily suspending production at the less profitable mines. In 2024, our rough diamond output totaled 33 million carats, and this year it will decrease by another 10%–15%. However, we are aiming to maintain our global leadership in diamond mining. And our production targets will depend on the real market situation in the future, he said.
Confidence in Market Recovery
The ALROSA CEO sees that their Indian partners in the cutting and polishing sector have been facing certain difficulties for three years already, but Mr Maryinchev is confident that market forces will eventually bring the supply and demand back into balance. All the more so as the end-user demand – including consumer interest in diamond jewelry – stays high. In monetary terms, diamond jewelry sales have long been higher than in the 2010s, when the figures were quite strong.
“There are unpredictable external factors that make forecasting difficult. For instance, in early 2025, nobody expected the U.S. to impose high import tariffs. However, many companies and experts predict that the market will recover in the next two, three years. There are two fundamental factors that support our confidence in this. On the one hand, demand for jewelry stays high. We are seeing considerable demand in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East, and strong internal demand in the Indian market. In the third quarter of 2025, sales of the major Indian retailers once again showed double-digit growth (29% year-on-year on average). The latest figures from China are also reassuring. On the other hand, diamond production keeps falling every year, driving a shift in the balance between demand and supply towards shortage, especially when it comes to large rough diamonds. Inventories in all parts of the diamond pipeline have been gradually returning to normal. I believe that the right conditions for prices to recover are taking shape in the global market.
Comment on Synthetic Diamonds
Commenting about synthetic diamonds, the ALROSA CEO said
“In our opinion, fears that synthetic substitutes might replace natural diamonds are becoming less and less likely to come true every year. There are almost no limits to how many artificial diamonds can be grown, and the process takes a few weeks. This is why we are witnessing a plunge in prices for man-made diamonds: since the emergence of synthetic stones on the jewelry market, they have become tens of times cheaper. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, wholesale prices dropped by almost 40% year-on-year, and the price difference between synthetic and natural diamonds already exceeds 95%. In some cases, jewelry pieces with synthetic diamonds cost the same as the gold used to make them, which means that their prices are at the break-even point. And the price difference will keep increasing,”
