Editor’s Note
Today’s forex market is shaped by three key factors: the movements of the USD, JPY, and EUR; the release of the FOMC minutes from the December meeting; and significant month-end, quarter-end, half-year-end, and year-end adjustments. These elements are crucial for traders monitoring volatility and strategic positioning.
The focus of today’s forex market lies in the ‘Direction of USD, JPY, EUR’, the ‘Release of FOMC Minutes (from the December 9-10 meeting)’, and the ‘December Month-End Factors (Month-End, Quarter-End, Half-Year-End, Year-End)’.
Attention is focused on the following US economic indicators and events:
- 23:00 JST: US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- 23:00 JST: US House Price Index
- 23:45 JST: US Chicago PMI
- 28:00 JST: Release of FOMC Minutes (from December 9-10 meeting)
There are no high-impact releases from outside the US.
Other important factors include:
- December month-end factors (month-end, quarter-end, half-year-end, year-end)
- Thin market conditions due to the New Year holidays
- Movements in US Treasury yields (US long-term interest rates)
- Direction of USD, JPY, EUR
- Speculation on US monetary policy (next announcement on January 28)
- Movements in major stock markets (centered on the US)
- Statements from US President Trump
- Speculation on Japanese monetary policy (next announcement on January 23)
- Release of high-impact US economic indicators (only Initial Jobless Claims this week)
- Statements from financial authorities and key figures (few due to holidays)
- Speculation on Eurozone monetary policy (next announcement on February 5)
- Speculation on policies of the Sanae Takaichi administration
- Movements in commodity markets, centered on oil and gold
- Speculation on the Ukraine situation and US-Russia relations
Today is close to the December month-end (month-end, quarter-end, half-year-end, year-end; tomorrow, the 31st, is the last day of the year).
The US economic indicators released today are the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the House Price Index, and the Chicago PMI. Meanwhile, among non-indicator events, the release of the FOMC Minutes (from the December 9-10 meeting) will take place.
After starting the week at levels similar to last Friday’s close, the forex market saw a dominant flow of JPY buying, with USD/JPY temporarily falling below 156, while EUR/USD traded in a range around the mid-to-high 1.17s.
Today, the direction of USD, JPY, EUR, the release of the FOMC Minutes (from the December 9-10 meeting), movements in major stock markets and US Treasury yields, and December month-end factors will be crucial.
Additionally, attention should be paid to speculation on US monetary policy, speculation on Japanese monetary policy, statements from US President Trump, speculation on Eurozone monetary policy, the release of high-impact US economic indicators (light this week), statements from financial authorities and key figures (few due to holidays), and the fact that it is a period of thin market participation due to the New Year holidays.
▼ December 31 (Wednesday)
- December month-end, quarter-end, half-year-end, year-end
- Japanese financial markets closed
- UK financial markets on shortened trading
- US bond market on shortened trading (US stock market normal, futures markets mixed)
- US Initial Jobless Claims
▼ January 1 (Thursday)
- New Year’s Day, financial markets in almost all countries closed
- No US indicators
▼ January 2 (Friday)
- Japanese holiday, market closed
- US indicators are light
