Editor’s Note
This analysis from ICICI Bank Global Markets indicates that domestic gold prices in India are likely to trend higher through 2025, supported by both rising international gold benchmarks and a depreciating rupee.
Gold prices in India are expected to maintain an upside bias for the rest of 2025, driven by a projected uptrend in global gold prices and a weakening Indian rupee, according to a sectoral update by ICICI Bank Global Markets.
The report projects an equilibrium range of USD/INR at 87.00-89.00 for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025) and the first half of 2026.
The report further added that the domestic gold prices are expected to trade between Rs 1,20,000 and Rs 1,35,000 per 10 grams through the remainder of 2025, and could rise further to Rs 1,30,000-Rs 1,45,000 in the first half of 2026.
However, risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly if the rupee weakens more than anticipated or global gold prices exceed current forecasts, the report added.
In India, the spot rate is currently around Rs 1.31 lakh per 10 grams on MCX.
This statement was made by Anantha Padmanaban, founder member and former chairman of the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) in an earlier interview.
The report added that the structural investment-related demand for the yellow metal is visible in ETF flows in gold that remained firm. The SPDR ETF flows in gold increased from 975 tonnes as of 13th September 2025 to 1015 tonnes as of 13th October 2025.
On the other hand, speculative net long positions decreased by roughly 8k in the last month.
Domestic gold prices have risen by 16 per cent over the last month, driven by the rise in global prices and depreciation in the INR against the USD over the period. At the same time, gold imports picked up from USD 5.44bn in August to USD 9.6bn in September, showing that demand in the local markets remains firm.
The report further highlighted that the surge came as investors turned to gold amid weak stock market returns and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.