Editor’s Note
This analysis reveals how importers strategically adapted to new tariffs, accelerating purchases and shifting patterns to avoid an estimated $6.5 billion in costs. The stockpiling of pharmaceuticals and precious metals in early 2025 highlights specific sectors where this behavior was most pronounced.
We estimate that importers avoided 13.1 percent ($6.5 billion) of new tariffs by accelerating purchases and changing their purchasing patterns in response to the new tariff regime. Importers especially stockpiled pharmaceuticals and precious metals during 2025 Q1.
U.S. import volumes dramatically increased in Q1 2025 as importers stocked up on goods to avoid tariffs, with aggregate import values exceeding historical trends by 26 percent. This pattern reversed in April and May as aggregate import values returned to levels consistent with historical trends.
Dramatic import surges were particularly evident in early 2025 from Ireland and Switzerland as importers stockpiled pharmaceuticals and precious metals.
We estimate that the new tariffs raised $42.7 billion in revenue between October 2024 and May 2025 relative to a counterfactual projection with no change in tariff rates.
Importers have avoided $6.5 billion in tariffs, equivalent to 13.1 percent of new revenue, by accelerating purchases and changing their purchasing patterns in response to the new tariff regime.
The U.S. International Trade Commission recently released detailed trade and tariff data through May 2025. This data allows us to provide an initial assessment of the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on U.S. imports and customs revenue and to examine how import behavior has changed in response to the new tariff regime. While this analysis is a retrospective examination of the impact of tariffs through May 2025, PWBM also provides a tariff simulator that can be used to forecast the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports and customs revenue.
Figure 1 illustrates the surge in U.S. import values that began in late 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, imports were 26 percent higher than historical trends would suggest. By April, the surge largely receded, with imports falling 17.5 percent month-over-month and returning to trend. May data confirms that imports have reverted to historical levels, declining 3.7 percent from April.
The import surge receded as the Trump administration’s tariff policies went into effect, suggesting that importers were stockpiling goods to avoid new tariffs. As shown in Figure 2, the overall effective tariff rate rose to 8.8 percent in May, up from just 2.2 percent in January.