Editor’s Note
This analysis highlights a significant trend of Bitcoin supply contraction, driven by long-term holders and corporate adoption. While reduced liquidity may support price appreciation, the concentration of holdings also introduces potential market risks, as noted by Fidelity.
According to the latest Bitcoin news, Fidelity predicts that 42% of Bitcoin’s supply, or 8.3 million BTC, could become illiquid by 2032.
Long-term holders and public companies are driving the supply contraction, now controlling over 6 million BTC.
Public companies own nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s supply, with 105 companies accumulating almost 1 million BTC.
The lack of liquidity supports bullish price dynamics, but Fidelity warns that large-scale sales remain a key risk.
In the latest Bitcoin news, Fidelity Digital Assets estimates that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply could reach over 8.3 million coins in the second quarter of 2032, representing nearly 42% of the circulating supply at that time, based on trends among long-term holders and public companies.
The firm published this analysis on September 15, 2025, highlighting how these groups have driven scarcity since 2016, with the forecast that the combined illiquid cohort will own over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025, more than 28% of the total supply cap of 21 million Bitcoin.
Fidelity identifies illiquid supply through two main groups, as detailed in recent Bitcoin news reports. The first includes Bitcoin that has not moved from wallets for at least seven years.
This cohort has shown no net decrease in holdings since 2016, with quarterly balances steadily increasing.
The second group consists of publicly traded companies that own at least 1,000 Bitcoin each. These companies experienced only one quarter of net supply reduction, in Q2 2022, amid broader market pressures.
As of June 30, 2025, public companies in this category owned over 830,000 Bitcoin, representing 97% of all Bitcoin owned by public companies and concentrated in 30 entities, according to Bitcoin news sources.
Fidelity’s methodology requires at least four years of data for classification, with supply balances increasing quarter-over-quarter at least 90% of the time. The report excludes potential additional illiquidity from future public company adoptions in its 2032 projection.
Bitcoin’s supply dynamics have shifted over 15 years, a trend often covered in Bitcoin news analyses. In the first quarter of 2009, 82% of the circulating supply—about 384,000 out of 469,000 Bitcoin—was classified as illiquid.
By Q2 2018, over 29% of the circulating supply met the illiquidity criteria as of June 30, 2025. The circulating supply was approximately 19.8 million Bitcoin at the end of Q2 2025.
Fidelity observes an acceleration in illiquid supply since the third quarter of 2024, driven by corporate treasury adoption, as highlighted in ongoing Bitcoin news updates.
The report’s charts, such as “Bitcoin last moved more than 7 years ago,” show the quarterly net changes and totals of the long-term holder cohort.
Another figure, “Quarterly Bitcoin illiquid vs. liquid supply,” illustrates the shift from decreasing to increasing illiquidity percentages over time. An “Overview of Bitcoin supply: Q2 2010-Q2 2025” shows the illiquid, liquid, and unmined portions.
Fidelity forecasts that the cohort of Bitcoin unmoved for over seven years will grow at the average rate of the past decade, according to the firm’s latest Bitcoin news.
This leads to the estimate of 8.3 million illiquid Bitcoin for the second quarter of 2032. The combined illiquid groups owned over $628 billion worth of Bitcoin as of June 30, 2025, at an average price of $107,700 per coin, more than double the value from the previous year.
The report cites the estimated 1.1 million Bitcoin owned by Satoshi Nakamoto as part of the long-term illiquidity category. Fidelity warns of the potential market impact from large sales, noting that 80,000 old Bitcoin—which had not moved in 10 years or more—were sold in July 2025, an event that has been making waves in Bitcoin news circles.
The price of Bitcoin fell 2% during that period, trading around $116,000. Previous reports from September 7, 2025, indicated that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply was 14.3 million coins, but Fidelity’s analysis focuses on specific cohorts.
National adoption and regulations could amplify this situation. The report points to potential price surges above $124,000 but underscores the risks of sudden movements from illiquid supply.
Bitcoin’s float is shrinking as these holders—often called “diamond hands”—maintain their positions. Investors are monitoring supply metrics amid ongoing accumulation. The Fidelity report, dated September 15, 2025, provides benchmark data for tracking this trend in future Bitcoin news.