Editor’s Note
This market update highlights a diverging price trend between the US and India, underpinned by stable American retail demand. Key dynamics include stronger performance for larger diamonds and significant industry movements, such as Botswana’s strategic stake in De Beers. Political and economic factors, including potential tariff shifts and robust holiday spending forecasts, continue to shape the landscape.
US prices seeing more positive trend than Indian prices. Market stable overall as American retail demand remains steady. Split between sizes continues, with 2 ct. and larger diamonds performing better than 1.20 ct. and smaller. President Donald Trump says he expects to reduce India tariffs. National Retail Federation reports Oct. consumer sales +5% YOY, predicts record $1T spending this holiday season. Botswana pushes ahead with plan to acquire majority De Beers stake amid competition from Angola. Christie’s Geneva Magnificent Jewels garners $76M (95% sell-through by value, 94% by lot) as modified pear brilliant, 9.51 ct., fancy-vivid-blue, VVS1 Mellon Blue diamond fetches $25.6M ($2.7M/ct.).
Long fancy shapes such as Oval, Marquise and Emerald doing better than rounds in 2 ct. and larger. High-quality Marquises, long Radiants and long Cushions in short supply. Marquises most expensive fancy shapes. Long Cushions easy to sell and trading at 20% to 25% premium over square ones. Solid US market for elongated Ovals of good shape and quality in D-I, VS-SI categories. US Oval prices 5% to 10% higher than those of Pears. Very well-cut fancy shapes difficult to find and commanding premiums. Fancies with bad proportions illiquid.
Market positive ahead of holiday season. Dealers, retailers and brands seeking merchandise, with 2 ct. and larger long fancies moving the best. Oversizes in demand. Bridal solid.
Trading okay. Dealers with the right inventory are selling. October polished exports up 1% year on year at $525 million.
Suppliers traveling to India in search of goods ahead of holiday season, aiming to take delivery and sell in US. Local market seeing ongoing weakness due to Israeli companies’ focus on overseas business.
Domestic market steady. Overseas demand sluggish due to US tariffs. Industry holding out hope for reduction in duty rate.
Steady market for ovals, emeralds and marquises in 2 to 3 ct. with F-H color and VS-SI1 clarity. Rounds under 1 ct. selling only at deep discounts. Chinese tourists in Hong Kong buying gold, not diamonds. Mainland sales up slightly during Singles’ Day (11/11) shopping festival.