Editor’s Note
A new report from the World Gold Council suggests that escalating geopolitical tensions and a deepening economic slowdown could drive gold prices significantly higher. This analysis explores the potential for a 15-30% surge from current levels, highlighting gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset during periods of uncertainty.
The World Gold Council (WGC) report states that if geopolitical risks increase further, potentially deepening an economic slowdown, gold prices could rise by 15 to 30 percent from current levels. Let’s explore this in detail.
The World Gold Council (WGC) has indicated the possibility of gold prices rising by 15 to 30 percent from current levels for the calendar year 2026. So far in 2025, gold prices have increased by approximately 60 percent. The main reasons for this are tariffs imposed by the US and geopolitical concerns, which have led investors to purchase gold as a safe-haven investment. Central bank gold purchases and interest rate movements have also influenced the direction of gold prices in 2025.
Conversely, if policies created by the Trump administration yield successful results, accelerating economic growth and reducing risk, gold prices could also fall by 5 to 20 percent.
According to the World Gold Council report, investment demand, particularly in Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), has remained strong and is expected to continue in the future. Looking at the report’s data reveals that investments in Gold ETFs have reached $77 billion so far in the calendar year 2025. This has led to an increase in their holdings by over 700 tonnes. The report states that even if we take the starting point back to May 2024, collective Gold ETF holdings have still increased by approximately 850 tonnes. This figure is less than half of the data from the previous gold bull cycle, so the potential for further growth remains. The rising demand for Gold ETFs and gold investment has impacted jewelry sales.
The WGC report also notes a negative aspect: gold prices could fall by 5 to 20 percent in 2026. For this to happen, US President Donald Trump’s policies would need to be successful, resulting in strong and growing fiscal stimulus in the US.
The report also warns that under these circumstances, the possibility of reflation could increase, boosting activity and advancing global growth. As inflationary pressures rise, the Fed may be forced to keep interest rates stable in 2026 or even raise them.
With hedges unwinding and retail demand softening, this situation could prove negative for gold. This could lead to a price decline of 5 to 20 percent from current levels.