Editor’s Note
This article discusses the factors behind gold’s record-breaking surge in late 2025, including geopolitical uncertainty and institutional demand, and outlines the World Bank’s projection for its continued strength into 2026.
Gold prices reached historic highs in October 2025, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, strong investor demand, and reinforced by central bank purchases. This trend is expected to continue into 2026 according to the World Bank’s semi-annual Commodity Markets Outlook report.
Precious metal prices are expected to reach new historic highs in 2026, following an estimated 41% increase this year. Gold briefly surpassed $4,300 per ounce and silver climbed to $54 in October before retreating, while platinum also posted strong gains. Gold is heading towards new records next year, boosted by its safe-haven role, with demand notably fueled by continued central bank purchases. Silver prices are expected to increase further, driven by growing industrial demand related to renewable energy technologies as well as its safe-haven appeal, while persistent supply tensions are expected to continue pushing platinum prices higher. However, these prospects remain highly uncertain. A resurgence of geopolitical tensions or increased uncertainty on the economic policy front could propel gold prices beyond current projections; conversely, a slowdown in industrial activity could exert downward pressure on silver and platinum, bringing their prices below baseline scenario forecasts.
Gold prices hit records in early October before retreating in recent weeks. This surge was fueled by strong safe-haven demand against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, and favored by a weakening US dollar and monetary easing in the United States. Gold demand increased by 10% during the first three quarters of 2025 (year-on-year), driven by sustained investment flows, including via gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as well as continued — albeit more moderate — central bank purchases. Prices are expected to jump by about 42% for the whole of 2025, marking their strongest annual increase since the late 1970s. The current surge, like that of 1979-1980, occurs in a context of intensifying geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar. However, it is distinguished by the scale of central bank purchases, whose volumes since 2022 are more than twice their 2015-2019 average. The share of central banks in total demand thus reached nearly 25% in 2024, compared to 12% in 2015-2019. Price increases are expected to continue into 2026, but at a more moderate pace, as official sector demand and investor interest gradually subside.
Silver prices reached historic highs in mid-October, around $54 per ounce, driven by the appeal of safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties and sustained industrial demand. They have since retreated slightly, as part of a broader market correction and a decline in supply concerns. In the medium term, demand is expected to continue growing, driven by both safe-haven purchases and the increasing use of silver in renewable energy technologies and semiconductor production, with these industrial uses representing more than half of total demand. Supply, however, will only increase gradually over the forecast horizon, with limited increases in mining production and recycling. Demand is expected to outstrip supply, leading to an expected price increase of about 34% in 2025 and an additional 8% in 2026.
Platinum prices recorded a strong increase this year while production is at some of the lowest levels seen in several years. Demand is expected to increase gradually, even though platinum consumption in the automotive industry — primarily for catalytic converters, which represent about 40% of total demand — is expected to remain moderate due to the rise of electric vehicles. Industrial and jewelry demand is also expected to show only limited gains. On the supply side, a slight recovery is expected, thanks to increased mining production in South Africa — the world’s leading platinum producer — and an increase in recycling in the automotive and jewelry sectors. However, supply will remain insufficient to meet demand, keeping the market tight. After an expected increase of 29% in 2025 (year-on-year), prices are expected to rise by about 4% in 2026.