Editor’s Note
The latest trade figures reveal a complex economic landscape for India. While exports saw modest growth in January 2026, a surge in gold and silver imports widened the trade deficit. However, a potential easing of international trade tensions offers a hopeful outlook for exporters in the months ahead.
New Delhi. The latest trade data presents a mixed picture for the Indian economy. In January 2026, while the country’s exports reached $36.56 billion with a marginal increase, rampant purchases of gold and silver pushed the trade deficit to a three-month high. For exporters grappling with the impact of US tariffs, there is relief in the news that signs of easing tensions are emerging, raising hopes for a pickup in pace in the coming months.
India’s exports in January 2026 rose by 0.61% to $36.56 billion, while imports surged by a hefty 19.2% to $71.24 billion. The trade deficit has widened to $34.68 billion, primarily due to a record 349% increase in gold imports. A reduction in US tariffs and future expectations of better performance from services exports are anticipated.
These figures from the Commerce Ministry make it clear that despite global challenges, Indian services are performing strongly. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal is confident that by the end of the current fiscal year, India’s total exports will surpass the historic figure of $860 billion. However, on the import front, the shine of silver and gold has slightly increased concerns for the government treasury.
- Gold Imports: A massive increase of 349.22% compared to last year was observed, reaching $12 billion.
- Silver Craze: Silver imports also recorded a surge of 127%.
- Switzerland’s Role: Gold imports from Switzerland alone increased by 836% to approximately $4 billion.
- Relief in Crude Oil: A point of relief was that crude oil imports decreased by 0.24% to $13.4 billion.
While merchandise exports saw a marginal rise, the services sector showed strength:
- Record Estimate: According to the Commerce Secretary, services exports this year could cross $410 billion for the first time.
- January’s Status: Services exports in January are estimated at $43.90 billion, significantly better than last year ($34.75 billion).
- Total Target: The total export target for the fiscal year 2025-26 has been set at $860 billion.
The 50% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Indian goods have impacted January’s figures:
- Affected Sectors: Exports in sectors like garments declined due to the high tariffs.
- Resolving Dispute: From February 7th, the US has removed the 25% tariff. It is hoped that after a trade agreement is reached, the remaining tariffs will also be reduced to 18%, providing significant relief to exporters.