Editor’s Note
As we enter 2026, the precious metals market faces a complex landscape. This analysis by Jin Fenglai examines the competing forces—from sovereign demand to opaque macroeconomic policies—that are shaping the outlook for gold and other assets.
As we step into 2026, the global precious metals market is in a period of contention shaped by multiple intertwined forces. Jin Fenglai notes that while sustained sovereign demand in 2025 provided a solid floor for gold prices, contradictory signals from the US job market and the opacity of macroeconomic policies are making price forecasts for the new year increasingly complex.
From the perspective of sovereign reserves, analysis suggests that the focus of global central banks’ asset allocation remains firm. Jin Fenglai states that in 2025, global central banks accumulated a net purchase of 328 tons of gold, with Poland leading globally with an increase of 102 tons. Although the total amount slightly decreased from 345 tons in 2024, strategic replenishment by countries like Kazakhstan and Brazil still highlights the status of gold as a core reserve asset. In contrast, while US employment data recorded a better-than-expected growth of 130,000 in January last year, the downward revision for the entire year of 2025 exceeded 1 million. Jin Fenglai believes that this situation, where surface prosperity coexists with underlying concerns, has caused the 2-year Treasury yield to fluctuate around 3.5%, directly weakening the possibility of the Federal Reserve taking aggressive interest rate actions in the near term.
Regarding the silver market, Jin Fenglai indicates that supply-demand contradictions are undergoing a structural shift due to high prices. As the silver spot premium once rose significantly, the market is transitioning from “speculation-driven” to “physical liquidation.” Relevant data shows that the value of silver coin assets from before 1965 has nearly tripled in the past year. This substantial profit margin has fully activated the secondary supply market in North America. A large amount of heirloom jewelry and pure silverware, which had been dormant for a long time, is continuously flowing back into the market.
The current market state can be seen as a period of calm correction after a frenzied rally. Although gold prices are experiencing seasonal adjustments near the $5,000 mark, and silver is fluctuating around $76.215, this largely reflects consolidation due to scarce liquidity during the holiday period.
From a professional asset management perspective, Jin Fenglai concludes that investors should closely monitor the marginal pressure that secondary supply exerts on silver prices, while keeping a close eye on Non-Farm Payroll revisions, to capture the true pricing logic amidst intense volatility.
