Editor’s Note
This analysis examines the recent consolidation in precious metals markets following a period of sharp volatility. The focus has shifted from rapid price appreciation to a phase of digestion, with movements now closely tied to incoming macroeconomic data.
At the beginning of 2026, precious metals prices experienced a sharp correction after a surge. Following a round of extreme volatility, the precious metals market has entered a phase of consolidation and digestion since February. The market dynamics have shifted from the previous rapid ascent to a volatile pattern contingent on the verification of macroeconomic data. Influenced by factors such as stronger-than-expected US employment data, delayed market expectations for interest rate cuts, and fluctuations in overseas stock markets, the short-term trend of precious metals prices is under pressure, and market sentiment is still in the process of recovery.
Analysts believe that this round of adjustment has not altered the long-term supportive logic for precious metals prices, with favorable factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases globally still in place. In the short term, precious metals prices are expected to consolidate at high levels and undergo repair. In the medium to long term, precious metals prices are expected to maintain a generally strong but volatile pattern in 2026, with diverging trends among different metals intensifying. The upward trend for gold prices remains unchanged, while silver prices are expected to continue exhibiting high volatility characteristics.
In January 2026, the spot price of London gold once rose to nearly $5,600 per ounce, and the spot price of London silver even climbed above $120 per ounce. However, on January 30, the spot price of London gold plummeted by over 9% in a single day, while the spot price of London silver plunged by more than 26%.
This week, gold and silver prices continued to fluctuate. Wind data shows that as of 18:00 on February 13, the spot price of London gold has risen by nearly 2% since the beginning of February, recovering to above $4,965 per ounce. The spot price of London silver, however, has maintained a downward trend, falling by over 8% since the beginning of February to around $78 per ounce.
Regarding the recent price movements of precious metals, the research team of Shenyin & Wanguo Futures interprets that, in the short term, market concerns about artificial intelligence triggered a wave of selling in financial markets, leading to a sharp decline in US technology stocks, a decrease in market risk appetite, and a straight dive in precious metals prices under liquidity shocks. In the long term, supportive factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases have not reversed. After the market fully adjusts and new bullish factors accumulate, gold prices are expected to return to an upward trajectory.
Recently, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released strong employment data, suppressing short-term expectations for interest rate cuts. The market has generally postponed the expected timing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut from June to July. Precious metals prices have entered a phase of repair and consolidation. After a significant retreat from the historical highs at the beginning of the month, they have recovered about half of the losses. The market dynamics have shifted from “accelerated rise” to a “macroeconomic verification” phase.
Regarding the current trend in the precious metals market, Liu Shiyao, a precious metals researcher at ZJTF Futures, believes that although gold prices rebounded after a sharp decline, it is still difficult for them to return to high levels in the short term. The repair of market structure and confidence still requires time. As the Spring Festival approaches, physical gold buying has weakened seasonally, which may lead to a decline in the volatility of global precious metals prices. Meanwhile, the correlation between the US dollar index and gold prices has increased, while the correlation between gold and commodities such as crude oil and copper has decreased, reflecting a shift in market trading logic.
Furthermore, the two major metals platinum and palladium share similar supply-demand dynamics, and platinum is expected to outperform palladium in 2026. Cao Shanshan believes that the precious metals market in 2026 may maintain a strong but volatile pattern, with structural differentiation among different metals further intensifying.
Regarding the medium- to long-term trends of gold and silver, Zhu Shanying, an analyst at CITIC Futures, believes that geopolitical disturbances, debates over the Federal Reserve’s independence, and the trend of global asset reallocation still provide core support for gold prices. The structural logic behind the previous rise has not fundamentally changed, but the pace of the uptrend has become more moderate, with volatility significantly lower than during the previous acceleration phase.
Regarding silver, Zhu Shanying believes that silver prices will continue to exhibit high volatility characteristics, with the structurally tight supply situation unchanged. Silver is more sensitive to interest rates and the US dollar, and coupled with its characteristics of small market capacity and relatively low liquidity, its price fluctuations and recovery process have been more intense following the release of US employment data. From a supply-demand perspective, the silver supply is expected to be in deficit for the sixth consecutive year, with investment demand being the core variable. In the domestic market, the tight inventory situation has not been fully alleviated, and exchanges strengthening management of the delivery process may suppress some speculative behavior in the short term.
Overall, Zhu Shanying stated that the silver market is caught in a tug-of-war between pressured financial attributes and structurally tight supply. Its price path relies more on confirmation of the macroeconomic direction. Once real interest rates decline again, silver’s price elasticity is expected to re-emerge.
