Editor’s Note
This article highlights how weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data has bolstered precious metals this week, with silver leading gains. The movement underscores the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators and shifting expectations for monetary policy.
The precious metals market shows clear direction mid-week. Gold is trading at $5,048, gaining 1.6% for the week. Silver rises to around $82, posting a strong increase of 5.8%. Platinum moves at $2,124, a weekly gain of 1.6%. Palladium trades at $1,732, improving by 3%. This development reflects a phase where economic signals, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy expectations are directly impacting the market.
The momentum in the gold price is currently significantly shaped by institutional target levels, which create an unusually unified picture. UBS targets $5,900, JP Morgan has $6,300 in sight, while Wells Fargo and BNP Paribas communicate similarly ambitious targets. These assessments are based on expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the continued movement of central bank gold purchases. Poland plans an additional 150 tons, and China has been buying without interruption for fifteen months. Geopolitical conflicts, new trade barriers, and weaker US data are burdensome, but the overarching trend remains stable and upward.
The silver price is also experiencing strong fundamentally driven inflows. The Silver Institute points to structural supply gaps that remain noticeable despite quieter market phases and intensify upward price pressure. Production problems in Peru, Mexico, and China reduce the available quantity and create an environment additionally supported by government purchases. Investors are increasingly reacting to geopolitical tensions and weak US economic signals by shifting into silver. Falling yields provide supportive tailwinds, while short-term pullbacks ahead of US labor market data are typically quickly absorbed. Even retail traders are increasing their trading activity, confirming the still constructive overall direction.
For the platinum price, supply risks primarily set the tone. In South Africa, production restrictions burden major mines, significantly limiting structural availability.
The World Platinum Investment Council expects persistent deficits, while industrial demand from the automotive sector and renewable technologies remains robust. A weaker dollar strengthens international demand, and ValOre Metals is working on a new project in Brazil to close future supply gaps. According to Trading Economics, price targets are $2,150 by the end of the quarter and $2,473 within the year.
Palladium presents a more complex market picture as it reacts more strongly to economic signals and investor positioning. After strong gains, profit-taking led to moderate pullbacks, while investors act more cautiously ahead of important US labor market and inflation data. However, expected interest rate cuts could generate new demand. Calming developments in the Middle East reduced short-term safe-haven buying, while a review of North American trade agreements creates uncertainty. Canada plays a central role as a producer, and Generation Mining is strengthening the project base for the Marathon Copper-Palladium project with investments from a First Nation. Trading Economics’ price targets are $1,786 by the end of the quarter and $2,071 within a year.
Chart analysis underscores the fundamentally driven strength. Gold trades stably above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, while an ADX of 52.1 shows pronounced trend strength, and pullbacks reliably find demand. Silver moves in an almost identical technical pattern: above both moving averages, an ADX of 51.9, and a consistently positive trend picture. Platinum is in a transitional phase between the SMA50 and SMA200, but an ADX of 29.4 indicates existing trend strength. Palladium trades stably above the relevant averages, accompanied by an ADX of 26.7, signaling a moderate but clear upward tendency.
In the coming weeks, the market will react strongly to fresh US economic data, Federal Reserve statements, and new geopolitical developments. At the same time, the supply situation for platinum and palladium remains an essential factor, as structural supply risks continue to carry weight. For gold and silver, central bank purchases and the discussion about interest rate cuts play a decisive role for the further price direction. Should the monetary environment loosen further, it could provide additional momentum for the entire precious metals complex and further stabilize the currently constructive structure.