Editor’s Note
Today’s forex market hinges on three key factors: the direction of major currencies (USD, JPY, EUR), developments surrounding potential Trump tariffs, and the release of the US Consumer Confidence Index. Traders should monitor these closely for market-moving signals.
The focus of today’s forex market lies in the ‘Direction of USD, JPY, EUR’, ‘Movements around Trump Tariffs’, and the ‘Release of the US Consumer Confidence Index’.
Today marks the reopening of the Japanese market and the end of the Chinese Spring Festival holiday.
The main US economic indicator for today is the Consumer Confidence Index. Additionally, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Housing Price Index will also be released.
Outside of economic indicators, events such as speeches by Fed Governor Waller (with voting rights) and Fed Governor Cook (with voting rights) are scheduled.
At the start of the week, both the US dollar and Japanese yen experienced significant fluctuations. USD/JPY started around 155.00, briefly fell below 154, rose above 155, and then moved within the 154.xx range. EUR/USD rose to the 1.18xx level before falling back to the 1.17xx level.
Today, the direction of the USD, JPY, and EUR, movements around Trump tariffs (following the US Supreme Court’s unconstitutional ruling and announcement of new tariffs), the release of the US Consumer Confidence Index, movements in major stock markets, and US Treasury yield trends are crucial.
Other factors to watch include statements from former President Trump, speculation on US monetary policy, the Iran situation, month-end factors (the 27th is the last business day of February), statements from financial authorities and key figures (focus on Fed officials and BOJ members), speculation on the policies of the Takashi administration, and speculation on Japan’s monetary policy.
Attention is focused on the following US economic indicators and events:
- 23:00 JST: US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- 23:00 JST: US Housing Price Index
- 23:15 JST: Speech by Fed Governor Waller (with voting rights)
- 23:30 JST: Speech by Fed Governor Cook (with voting rights)
- 24:00 JST: US Consumer Confidence Index
- 27:00 JST: US 2-Year Note Auction
Outside the US, attention is on:
- 23:15 JST: Speech by BOE Governor Bailey
- 26:45 JST: Speech by ECB President Lagarde
Other important factors include:
- Japan market reopening after a holiday.
- China reopening after the Spring Festival holiday (markets closed until the 23rd).
- Month-end factors for February (the 27th is the last business day of the month).
- Speculation surrounding former President Trump’s State of the Union address (around 11:00 JST on the 25th).
- Upcoming NVIDIA earnings release on February 25th (Wednesday).
- Movements around Trump tariffs (US Supreme Court unconstitutional ruling → new tariffs announced).
- Direction of USD, JPY, EUR.
- Iran situation.
- Trends in US Treasury yields (US long-term interest rates).
- Speculation on US monetary policy (next policy announcement scheduled for March 18th).
- Trends in major stock markets (US-centered).
- Release of key US economic indicators (Consumer Confidence Index on the 24th, PPI on the 27th).
- Statements from former President Trump (State of the Union address at 11:00 JST on the 25th).
- Speculation on the policies and direction of the Takashi administration.
- Statements from financial authorities and key figures (focus on Fed officials and BOJ members).
- Speculation on Mr. Walsh, nominated as the next Fed Chair.
- Speculation on Japan’s monetary policy (next policy announcement scheduled for March 19th).
- Vigilance against currency intervention.
- Earnings releases from major US companies (peak period, NVIDIA after US market close on the 25th).
- Movements in commodity markets, centered on crude oil and gold.
- Speculation on Eurozone monetary policy (next policy announcement scheduled for March 19th).
- February 25th (Wed): AU Consumer Price Index, US Former President Trump’s State of the Union Address, NVIDIA Earnings. (No major US economic indicators)
- February 26th (Thu): JP Speech by BOJ Board Member Takata, US Initial Jobless Claims.
- February 27th (Fri): Last day of February month-end. JP Tokyo CPI, US Producer Price Index.
