Editor’s Note
This article, citing analysis from Observer Voice, presents a mixed outlook for gold prices, suggesting potential short-term volatility but medium-term strength. Forecasts should be treated as speculative, and readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
According to the Indian online news site Observer Voice, analysts estimate that gold prices could see a short-term decline to $4,790–$4,750 per ounce. However, the medium-term outlook for gold prices over the next one to two months remains positive. Forecasts suggest that, given the persistent uncertainties in the global economic landscape, gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce in the second quarter.
The Indian online news site Observer Voice quoted Manish Sharma, Vice President of Commodities and Currency at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, stating that gold prices are expected to maintain a long-term upward trend.
Recent US economic indicators, including slowing inflation but a strong labor market, have created a mixed outlook for gold prices.
Demand for precious metals, particularly in India and China, is expected to remain strong, and market dynamics are anticipated to dominate gold prices in the coming weeks.
Gold prices recorded a modest gain last week, supported by mixed signals from US economic data.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 recorded a 2.4% year-on-year increase, down from 2.7% in December 2025 and below the forecast of 2.5%. Monthly inflation also decreased from 0.3% last month to 0.2%.
These figures reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may consider cutting interest rates by the end of this year.
However, the labor market remained stable, with strong growth in non-farm jobs and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate.
This mixed economic landscape has limited the potential for a sharp rise in gold prices, especially amid fluctuating demand from key markets like India and China.
In recent months, rising demand for precious metals has prompted authorities in Shenzhen, a major retail hub in China, to issue warnings about illegal gold trading activities.
These activities include applications and online promotions selling gold bars that benefit individual investors.
The precious metals market has seen sluggishness this week, affected by holidays in China and profit-taking by investors.
Currently, spot gold is trading around $4,937 per ounce and is expected to remain stable within a limited range.
Analysts estimate that prices could fall to the $4,790 to $4,750 per ounce range in the short term.
Similarly, spot silver is currently around $74.75 per ounce and is likely to fall to $68-70 per ounce within the next one to two weeks.
The recent volatile trading is primarily due to low liquidity, especially as many Asian markets are closed for holidays.
Profit-taking following a 2.5% price increase on February 13 has also contributed to the current volatility.
Market activity this week is likely to be influenced by the long holiday period in China and other Asian markets, as well as expectations for future interest rate adjustments.
Furthermore, fluctuations in Asian currencies like the yen could also affect market sentiment, unless the Bank of Japan adopts a more aggressive monetary policy.
Traders are closely monitoring geopolitical developments, including the resumption of nuclear talks between the US and Iran, as well as US-led efforts to resolve the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
These factors can significantly influence market risk appetite and the trend towards safe-haven investments.
Key US macroeconomic indicators, including GDP data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, are expected to play a crucial role in guiding gold prices in the short term.
In the medium term, the outlook for gold prices over the next one to two months remains positive.
Analysts believe that the underlying factors of the multi-year bullish cycle, such as geopolitical tensions and a shift away from traditional assets like currencies and government bonds, will continue to support gold’s upward momentum.
Forecasts suggest that, given the persistent uncertainties in the global economic outlook, gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce in the second quarter.