Editor’s Note
Predictions of a global trade collapse in the face of protectionist measures have proven premature. As this analysis shows, international trade has demonstrated unexpected resilience, continuing to adapt and grow despite significant political headwinds.
There was a time when 2025 was predicted to be the year international trade would grind to a halt. The tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump were described as unprecedented in scale and ambition, potentially halting the process of globalization. However, as we enter 2026, the actual figures do not reflect that scenario.
According to the latest data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the value of global trade in 2025 is likely to exceed $35 trillion for the first time, a 7% increase from the previous year. The White House may impose tariffs on trade, but it cannot completely shut it down.
Of course, the impact of tariffs is still visible. The first six months of 2025 saw a surge in stockpiling of goods, as importers increased their orders to avoid the risk of rising tariffs. This led many to believe that businesses were rushing to import goods across borders before policy decisions limited opportunities.
But the state of trade is far more complex than that. This is not the 1930s, and goods are not the only medium for cross-border value creation. Trade in services grew by 9% over the past year. The global economy is becoming “intangible” at a much faster rate than traditional trade policies. You can block the import of washing machines or steel at a port, but it will be far more difficult to prevent businesses from purchasing cloud computing services or chip designs from abroad.
Rising tariffs can also indirectly affect goods trade. Difficulties in buying and selling often lead to price increases. In the first six months of 2025, prices for many internationally traded goods rose sharply, likely reflecting the uncertainty generated by Trump’s tariff policies.
Overall, even if the volume of physical goods crossing borders decreases, the total value of those transactions may still increase. This could happen if the U.S. resumes domestic production of simple goods like T-shirts, but continues to import intermediate components and high-value machinery.
Trade policies may change, but technology continues to evolve. Given the immense potential offered by artificial intelligence, no country can remain completely isolated. Global demand for metals from Africa, semiconductors from Taiwan (China), or gas turbines for data centers from Japan will continue to grow.
When production is widely dispersed and demand remains strong, it becomes difficult for countries to completely block imports. They can, at most, shift obstacles and higher costs from one stage of the supply chain to another. In most cases, domestic costs will rise, while some “trusted” partners will still benefit. This is why, despite facing numerous challenges from U.S. tariffs and investment requirements, South Korea’s exports in 2025 could exceed $700 billion for the first time. Taiwan estimates its trade will grow by 7.37% in 2025, the fastest growth rate in 15 years.
Predictions of a decline in global trade have clearly overlooked the role of services, technology, and value creation and distribution in global supply chains. But the most important factor that has been overlooked is people. Entrepreneurs are always finding ways to make money, and manufacturers are always finding ways to sell. In recent years, most resources focused on reducing dependence on Chinese suppliers are now shifting towards mitigating risks from American buyers. The search for resilient supply chains is gradually giving way to efforts to find reliable consumer markets. UNCTAD reports that trade among developing countries is growing faster than the global average, while intra-regional trade in East Asia grew 10% year-on-year.
The U.S. remains a vast and unavoidable consumer market. However, the impact of its trade barriers will not be uniform across all countries and industries. For some countries, job losses and contract damage will be a severe blow. But most countries will seek diversification, turn to other export markets, or find indirect ways to access the American market.
UNCTAD suggests that the full impact of obstacles on the path of globalization will only become clear in 2026, while also warning of the risk of slowing growth. 2026 may present a challenging period, but the lessons of 2025 will not be easily forgotten.
The world economy has shown far more resilience than expected, and the forces connecting economies are stronger than any rigid policy. New trade models based on regional integration, cross-border services, and technological change will undoubtedly continue to emerge.