【韩国】[Raw Materials Market] From Precious Metals to Bitcoin… Shaken by Volatile Market Conditions

International gold prices plunged due to margin call shocks. Global commodity and financial markets are losing direction amid extreme volatility. Gold and silver repeated sharp declines and rebounds, while crude oil edged up amid Middle East tensions.
In the grain market, soybeans emerged as a leading performer, while wheat and corn were weighed down by supply concerns. Cryptocurrency and stock markets are also reacting sensitively to employment indicators and policy uncertainties.

In the global precious metals market, gold and silver prices fell sharply, continuing a roller-coaster ride. According to Reuters, on the 5th (local time), spot gold traded at $4,872.83 per ounce, down 1.8% from the previous session. The closing price for April delivery gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.2% to $4,889.50 per ounce.
The drop in silver was even steeper. Spot silver traded at $77.36 per ounce at the same time, plunging 12.1%, and was pushed down to $72.21 during the session.

Recent volatility in precious metal prices has expanded in conjunction with the CME Group’s increased margin requirements. It is assessed that contract liquidations by investors facing margin calls after the margin hike have exacerbated the sell-off. Additionally, with the easing of ‘Sell America’ concerns following the nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair candidate, gold and silver have been repeating sharp fluctuations.

The base metals market generally showed a mixed trend. Copper prices showed limited movement after a decline, with some buying interest flowing in.
Copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses increased to 183,275 tons due to increased inflows into Korea and New Orleans, and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories also increased for the ninth consecutive week. COMEX copper inventories also hit a record high of 531,999 tons.
The speculative frenzy in the metals market that spread around January is cited as a background to market volatility. Chinese metal exchanges have implemented margin increases and strengthened trading rules a total of 38 times over the past two months. These measures spread not only to precious metals but also to industrial metals in general. While concerns about dollar devaluation and the energy transition theme led to capital inflows, the prevailing assessment is that it was an unstable upward structure disconnected from physical supply and demand.
Shareholders of Australian mining company Rio Tinto welcomed the decision to end merger talks with Glencore. Had the merger succeeded, it could have created the world’s largest mining company with a market capitalization exceeding $200 billion, but Rio Tinto stated that it did not reach an agreement that sufficiently reflected shareholder value. The market is watching whether Rio Tinto’s independent strategy, which it has long emphasized, will lead to actual results.

New York oil prices closed slightly higher amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. On the 6th, Eastern Time, March WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange finished trading at $63.55 per barrel, up $0.26 from the previous session.
The US and Iran resumed nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman, but failed to produce visible results. The US demanded a halt to uranium enrichment, but Iran refused, and discussions on limiting missile capabilities reportedly did not take place.

In the grain market, soybeans emerged as the leading performer. Buying surged after President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of China increasing purchases of US soybeans. However, according to the US Department of Agriculture, cumulative soybean export contracts amounted to 34.29 million tons, down 20% year-on-year, revealing that the price increase is based on expectations.
The strength in soybean meal, leading to improved crush margins, further supported soybean prices. In contrast, soybean oil was relatively weak due to changes in global vegetable oil demand.
In the wheat market, supply concerns resurfaced as the FAO forecast the global grain stock-to-use ratio for 2025/26 at 31.8%. Corn was supported on the downside by increased cumulative export contracts and ethanol demand, but additional upward momentum was limited.

Bitcoin successfully rebounded to $70,664.58 after plummeting to around $60,000 early in the week, hitting its lowest level since October 2024.
Given the steep decline, a rebound accompanied it, but the internal market sentiment was closer to ‘fear’ than ‘relief.’ While institutional investors see the sub-$70,000 range as a buying opportunity, retail investors are focused on finding bottom signals after the sharp drop.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which shows investor sentiment, fell to 14, hitting its lowest level in six weeks. As market sentiment turned negative rapidly, investors showed moves to confirm the bottom.
As Bitcoin weakness appeared, a flow of funds moving to gold and silver was also observed. Market analysis suggested that the post-election cryptocurrency surge was driven more by ETF funds following momentum than by long-term holders. Some strategists argued that Bitcoin failed to function as a dollar hedge, presenting extreme outlooks such as a price target of $0. It is assessed as a typical pattern where volatility amplifies when the narrative itself is shaken as expectations formed during the surge phase are broken.
The altcoin market was generally under pressure. XRP fell 0.20% to $1.43, but its daily RSI fell to 20, recording its most oversold level ever. Some analysts, citing past patterns where certain rebounds were repeated, suggested a possibility of a 15-40% rebound to $2.20-$2.50 by the end of the month.
Ethereum rose 0.38% to $2,094.10, while Solana fell 1.23% to $86.46. Both assets showed more limited movement compared to Bitcoin, and altcoins overall continued their weak trend, falling 8-15% compared to last week.

The New York stock market is expected to focus on signals of a slowdown in the employment market. Key indicators directly linked to the Fed’s dual mandate (employment and prices) will be released consecutively this week. On the 11th, the US January non-farm payrolls, and on the 13th, the US January CPI will be announced.
Warning lights for employment are already on. US corporate layoff plans in January surged to 108,435, up 205% month-on-month and 118% year-on-year. December JOLTS job openings fell by 386,000 from the previous month to 6.542 million, significantly missing the expectation of 7.2 million. The hiring rate also fell to 3.9%, recording its lowest level since April 2020.
Wall Street forecasts a January unemployment rate of 4.4% and 70,000 new non-farm jobs. Concerns are raised that if the actual figures fall significantly short of forecasts, employment anxiety could spread rapidly. Bank of America Securities assessed that the job market is “not yet at a point where the market should stumble, but still unstable and the biggest risk factor in the economic outlook.”
On the price front, the month-on-month increase forecasts for both the January all-items CPI and core CPI are presented at 0.3%. If CPI remains within the expected range, the Fed may have more room to weigh the weakening employment, but conversely, if prices spike again, the interest rate path becomes complicated. The market currently expects the Fed to cut rates twice by 25bp this year, and observations suggest that the timing of resuming cuts could be brought forward depending on this week’s indicator results.
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed the 50,000 line for the first time in history. While the semiconductor sector’s enthusiasm continues, a flow of funds spreading to cyclical and blue-chip stocks has been observed, raising the question of whether the market is moving away from a structure overly dependent on specific industries. Market attention is focused on how much rotational buying can buffer the high concentration in AI/semiconductors, which faces significant peak pressure, and what signals the employment and price indicators, which could act as catalysts, will provide.