Editor’s Note
This article discusses the recent surge in precious metal prices, driven by shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy. The price movements in both international futures and domestic retail markets are highlighted for informational purposes. Readers should note that market conditions are dynamic and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
Following the release of US CPI data on February 13 (local time), market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut increased, the US dollar index retreated, bolstering the appeal of precious metal assets. COMEX gold futures rose 2.33% to $5,063.80 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures gained 2.10% to $77.27 per ounce.
On February 14, domestic brand pure gold jewelry prices followed the upward trend. According to inquiries, Chow Sang Sang’s pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,551 yuan per gram, a daily increase of 27 yuan from the previous day’s 1,524 yuan; Lao Miao Gold’s pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,565 yuan per gram, a daily increase of 36 yuan from the previous day’s 1,529 yuan.
The Economic Daily recently noted that entering 2026, the international precious metals market has continued its impressive performance from last year, presenting a “roller coaster” ride that is dizzying. In January, the London spot gold price soared from $4,500 per ounce to a historic peak of $5,598.75, a monthly increase exceeding 24%. At the end of January, gold plummeted for two consecutive trading days, with a single-day drop as high as 9%, marking the largest single-day decline since 1980, touching a low of $4,440 per ounce. Entering February, market sentiment quickly recovered. On February 4, London spot gold broke through $5,050 per ounce, only to experience a sharp intraday drop on the 5th… Market participants believe this “roller coaster” trend will continue this year.
Currently, the international gold market trend is jointly influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and speculative capital. Therefore, as gold prices repeatedly reach new highs, risks are also accumulating, making market volatility inevitable.
Leading investment banks like JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank have recently increased their holdings in gold ETFs, with global holdings seeing a net increase of 62 tons compared to the end of January.
Several international institutions have recently raised their gold price targets. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its $6,000 per ounce target in a report, stating that “the main drivers pushing gold prices higher—increased central bank gold reserves, weakening US dollar credibility, and persistent geopolitical risks—remain unchanged.”
Data shows that the proportion of gold reserves held by emerging market central banks remains low, indicating significant room for future allocation.
From a valuation perspective, the current gold price is not outside a reasonable range. Although some analysts believe the price has already factored in gains for the next decade, the valuation framework for gold is undergoing structural changes. Over the past 20 years, gold prices were primarily anchored to US Treasury real yields. Currently, the reshaping of the global monetary system has increased the weight of gold’s “monetary attributes.” The total value of existing gold ($38.2 trillion) is now comparable to the total outstanding US debt ($38.5 trillion), a change signifying gold’s significantly elevated status in the global monetary system.
UBS released a research report stating that if geopolitical risks escalate sharply, gold prices could touch $7,200 per ounce within the year; if the Fed maintains its current monetary policy, the downside target would be $4,600 per ounce. Against this backdrop, with rate cuts materializing and central bank gold reserves increasing, gold prices are expected to break through $6,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter of this year.
However, potential risks in the international precious metals market must also be vigilant. There are three main risk factors to watch closely for gold’s future.
From the current market situation, concentrated profit-taking and quantitative selling pressure are resonating. Previously, gold prices rebounded over 14% from the low of $4,440 per ounce, with speculative long positions at high levels and the RSI once breaking above 90, indicating extremely strong overbought signals. When price trends show signs of weakness, quantitative funds like Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies trigger automatic stop-loss mechanisms, leading to a chain reaction of “selling—decline—more selling.” Data shows SPDR Gold Shares reduced holdings by 3.72 tons on February 5, the first significant reduction recently, reflecting a clear increase in institutional willingness for short-term profit-taking. Furthermore, derivatives like gold futures and options have high leverage characteristics. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has again raised margins for precious metal futures, further limiting the room for speculative capital炒作.
Policy expectation fluctuations triggered by the nomination for Fed Chair are just the beginning. Subsequent outcomes like US Congressional approval of Kevin Warsh’s nomination and signals from Fed monetary policy meetings could significantly impact gold prices. The market generally expects that under Warsh’s leadership, the Fed will adopt a policy mix of “balance sheet reduction alongside limited rate cuts.” The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in June has dropped from 72% to 61%, with the US dollar index rebounding to 104.3, naturally pressuring dollar-denominated gold. The unresolved uncertainty of US protectionist policies will inevitably cause market turbulence.
News of the US and Iran restarting nuclear negotiations on February 6 (local time) eased Middle East tensions, and Russia-Ukraine entering negotiation stages, causing some capital that had flowed into the gold market due to geopolitical risks to shift towards equity markets. Currently, market participants predict the $5,000 per ounce level will form strong resistance. This level is both the 50% retracement level of the previous surge and a high-volume trading zone from December 2025, where bulls and bears are fiercely contesting, triggering the “roller coaster”行情.
In summary, long-term supportive factors such as the ongoing global “de-dollarization” process, continued structural demand from global central banks to increase gold reserves, and the onset of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle remain unchanged. Only by maintaining rational judgment and a long-term perspective can one navigate through the纷扰 of price fluctuations and discern the core logic behind the changing demand in today’s gold market.