Editor’s Note
This report details the immediate market reaction to the announced U.S.-India trade deal, which has buoyed sentiment with the prospect of lower tariffs. It also covers recent price trends, noting a moderation in declines and stable conditions in key markets as the industry awaits the final agreement.
President Donald Trump’s announcement of a US-India trade deal lifts sentiment. The agreement could reduce tariffs on jewelry to 18%, with speculation that diamonds and gems might become exempt. The market expects a pause in India exports to the US as dealers await final terms. January saw more moderate price declines, with the 0.30 and 1 ct. RAPI down 1.3%, and the 0.50 ct. down 1.2%. Round prices were stable in early February. US retail and wholesale markets were steady. Positive reports came from the Centurion show and Tucson gem fairs. De Beers reviewed its company value again, slashing its 2026 production plan to 21M-26M carats from 26M-29M carats; the miner’s 2025 rough prices fell 25%, including special deals. Busy rough-trading events lifted the mood in Antwerp.
Long fancy shapes such as Ovals, Marquises, and Emeralds are performing better than rounds in sizes of 2 carats and larger. High-quality Marquises, long Radiants, and long Cushions are in short supply. Marquises are the most expensive fancy shapes. Long Cushions are easy to sell and are trading at a 20% to 25% premium over square ones. The US market shows solid demand for elongated Ovals of good shape and quality in D-I, VS-SI categories. Indian prices for 0.30 to 0.79 ct. Ovals and Pears are softening, except for ideal long models. Princess cuts are weak. Very well-cut fancy shapes are difficult to find and command premiums. Fancies with bad proportions are illiquid.
Dealers are hopeful for an improvement in imports once the US-India tariff agreement goes into effect. The Arizona shows reflect a good market for colored gemstones and higher-end diamond jewelry, with brisk trading at the Tucson exhibitions (AGTA GemFair, GJX) and the Centurion show in Phoenix.
Sentiment is improving amid a good market for stones of 5 carats and larger, the US-India trade deal, and an increase in local rough trading. The polished sector is seasonally quiet but hopeful for a 2026 recovery. Long fancies are stronger than rounds.
The market is slow but stable. Tariffs are impacting trading, with dealers hoping for an exemption.
The trade agreement with America is boosting sentiment, but nothing is final yet; tariff exemption still has hurdles to overcome. Exporters are cautious about shipping to the US, since the duty rate might fall soon from the current 50%. The overseas market is still facing challenges from synthetics and weak Chinese sales. International buyers are only purchasing for confirmed orders. The industry will need to downsize to balance supply and demand.
Trading is low ahead of the gem and jewelry shows (March 2-8). The market is expecting decent traffic but is unsure if this will translate into sales. There is steady local demand for 1 to 2.50 ct. rounds and ovals for engagement rings and 3 to 5 ct. diamonds for investments. Diamonds under 1 ct. are slow. The mainland market is preparing for Valentine’s Day (February 14) and Chinese New Year (February 17).