Editor’s Note
While the Economic Survey suggests domestic inflation may be contained by strong supply and policy vigilance, global uncertainties are expected to keep gold and silver prices elevated in the near term.
The Economic Survey states that inflation will not be a major concern in the upcoming fiscal year. The supply side is strong and policy vigilance continues. However, due to global uncertainties, gold and silver prices may remain strong.
The Economic Survey says that the supply-side situation is currently better. In addition, the benefits of reforms made in GST rates are gradually becoming visible. Due to these reasons, the impact of inflation remains soft and the prices of everyday items are not creating much pressure.
According to the report, in the coming period, due to strong agricultural production, stability in global commodity prices, and the cautious policies of the government and the Reserve Bank, inflation is expected to remain around the set target. This is considered a good sign for the economy.
However, the Economic Survey has also pointed towards some risks. Fluctuations in the rupee against the dollar, rising prices of raw materials and base metals, and global uncertainties could create pressure going forward. Continuous monitoring of these situations and taking timely policy steps will be necessary.
The survey clearly states that as long as lasting peace does not come to the world and issues like trade wars are not resolved, gold and silver prices may remain strong. In an uncertain environment, investors consider them safe havens, which keeps their demand persistent.
According to the report, the inflation rate in the fiscal year 2026-27 could be slightly higher compared to 2025-26. Despite this, it is not considered a matter of serious concern. Both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believe that inflation will remain within the target range of 4 percent (plus or minus 2 percent).
The Economic Survey indicates that inflation is currently under control and conditions may remain manageable going forward. However, given the global situation and market risks, the government and policy institutions will have to remain vigilant to maintain balance.