Editor’s Note
For current or prospective gold investors, Quant Mutual Fund’s analysis suggests a potential short-term correction of 12-15% in dollar terms, while reaffirming gold’s value as a long-term portfolio holding.
If you have recently invested in gold or are considering it, this news is particularly important for you. Quant Mutual Fund believes that gold prices have currently peaked and could see a decline of 12% to 15% in dollar terms over the next two months. However, it is also stated that in the medium and long term, gold remains a good investment, and every investor should maintain some allocation in their portfolio.
The report also states that June is typically a bullish month for crude oil, and the decline in its prices has now halted. If risk increases in emerging markets, a 10-12% surge in crude oil would not be surprising.
Quant Mutual Fund’s report states that given the current global situation, Bitcoin could be an ideal investment for global investors with a higher risk appetite. However, tight liquidity conditions persist worldwide, which will impact cryptocurrencies in the short term. The report also mentions that the outlook for crypto remains positive for the medium and long term. Specifically, the high risk-taking capacity of the youth is crucial for sustaining a long and strong rally in crypto and other digital assets.
According to Quant Mutual Fund’s report, after reaching a high in January, the Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a significant decline so far. However, it now appears to be stabilizing at its lower levels, and a rebound rally from here can be expected. Regarding global equity, the fund house says the short-term recovery that was expected has largely materialized. But the medium-term trend remains weak, and the coming months could be particularly challenging for the US equity market. The report also states that global equity is currently in a consolidation phase, not a major downturn as many pessimistic investors believe. If a deep recession were to occur, it would require global liquidity to tighten further. But currently, cash conditions worldwide remain quite strong.
Quant Mutual Fund has indicated in its monthly report that cash levels in most schemes have now been utilized for investment in select mid and small-cap companies. However, the portfolio’s bias still leans towards large-cap stocks, and overall portfolio liquidity remains good. The fund house also noted that good buying opportunities are visible in some sectors. These include PSUs (public sector undertakings), infrastructure, hotels and hospitality, pharma, materials, retail, and the telecom sector.
Alongside this, the fund house has advised investors that not only in India but globally, investors should maintain a healthy mix of different assets in their portfolios. The report also states that the fund house’s predictive analysis shows that currently, a ‘risk-on’ environment (favorable for investment) persists for India, while a ‘risk-off’ situation (time for caution) exists for the US. This situation is also visible based on current global liquidity.
Quant Mutual Fund stated in its report that if India receives the right policy support, the country could significantly benefit from the global supply chain shift in the medium term. This is due to the US increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, potential progress in the India-US trade deal, and favorable domestic conditions in the country. The report says India’s domestic market is now as large as China’s was in 2006-07, and this could be the key to strong manufacturing growth in the coming years. The fund house also noted that currently, traditional relationships between different asset classes like gold, currency, bond yields, and real interest rates appear to be completely breaking down. The influence of global central banks and policymakers is now waning as they have failed to control rising debt and inflation, while the scope and depth of capital markets worldwide have increased more than ever before.
Informing its investors with nearly 95 lakh folios, the fund house stated that it is the first mutual fund house to receive a license from SEBI for a ‘Specialized Investment Fund (SIF)’. This long-short fund will be available in equity, debt, and hybrid categories and is specifically for investors who understand financial markets well and have a higher risk-taking capacity. These funds are for those who want to move beyond traditional investments and adopt advanced strategies. The fund house further stated that a separate brand identity, website, and communication portal for SIF will be launched soon. In the coming weeks and months, the company will focus on educating the target audience about these products.
