Editor’s Note
This analysis examines the shifting dynamics of gold investment in India, exploring whether record-high prices are diminishing its traditional appeal and what the future may hold for its market value.
Today’s discussion focuses on gold. Gold, which was once considered the pride of Indian households, the first choice of investors, and the most reliable support in uncertain times. However, in the past year, gold prices have set new records. Buying gold is no longer a common affair in ordinary households; rising prices have broken the fascination of many people with this precious metal. In 2025, gold prices saw a significant increase. The trend continued in January 2026, but now the market is witnessing fluctuations—sometimes gold is falling, sometimes rising slightly. Silver also caused similar distress for people. It once crossed 4 lakhs and then suddenly, silver’s shine also began to fade. Gold and silver prices hit their all-time high record on January 29, 2026. Since then, gold prices have fallen by approximately 27,099 rupees per ten grams, and silver prices have dropped by 1,85,000 rupees per kilogram. However, compared to previous years, prices are still quite high. According to today’s data, gold fell sharply by about 3,292 (2.13%) to reach a level of 1,51,468 per 10 grams. Today, silver fell by about 9,035 (3.77%) and was trading near 2,30,296 per kilogram. Amidst these fluctuations, discussions are now emerging in the market that gold prices could fall further in the coming times and may even drop below 1 lakh by next year. Is something like this really going to happen? Let’s understand the entire calculation based on today’s discussions, global conditions, and expert opinions.
Experts believe that instability in the global economy, weakness in the dollar, and hoarding are responsible for the rising prices of gold. Russia, which was the main reason for the increase in gold prices to this level, will now also become a cause for the decline in prices. Because in the recent past, due to the ongoing conflict with the US, Russia used the dollar very limitedly in international trade. But now it is being said that Russia is considering using the US dollar with full force once again, and in such a scenario, if the dollar strengthens, prices could fall automatically. Not only that, if Russia prioritizes the dollar again, it could have a profound impact on the economic policies of many other countries.
Another argument being given for the fall in gold prices is that last year, central banks of many countries, including China, continued to buy gold on a large scale. This kept its prices continuously rising in the international market. But gradually, these purchases are now decreasing. However, banks are still net buyers. In such a situation, if central banks bring some cuts in purchases in the coming times and express faith in the dollar again, it will put more pressure on prices.
It is also being said that the Indian government is going to change its strategy regarding gold. India is preparing to increase imports of precious metals (gold and silver) from the US instead of the UAE. It is believed that this major change will not only increase supply in the market but could also lead to a significant drop in gold and silver prices in the domestic market. In the coming days, buying jewelry could become much cheaper. This will directly provide great relief to your pocket. Meanwhile, if the Russia-Ukraine war subsides in the coming times, it will also have an impact on the global market. As the situation stabilizes, conditions will improve. On the other hand, those who had invested heavily in gold last year are now facing pressure to book profits, which will help in lowering prices.
Market analysts believe that if the current global signals remain the same, a significant decline in gold prices could be seen by 2027. The strengthening of the dollar, reduced gold purchases by central banks, and the possibility of large-scale profit booking are pointing towards the possibility of gold prices falling. However, this decline will be gradual and will depend on many economic conditions. In such a scenario, it is being said that if everything goes well, gold could reach 1 lakh by the end of 2027. Well, now it remains to be seen whether the ongoing discussions actually come true, whether the public gets relief, or whether these talks just remain in the air.
