Editor’s Note
This analysis from Confindustria highlights how a climate of distrust toward U.S. assets is reshaping markets, driving bond yields higher and fueling a rally in gold and commodity-linked equities.
Confindustria’s quick economic report focuses on the surge in gold prices: The impact of widespread “distrust” in the US has led to a sell-off of US government bonds, resulting in an increase in Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, the surge in commodity prices in global markets is lifting mining company shares.
Italy’s economy is almost stagnant and weak within the Eurozone. This is the picture presented.
According to the Confindustria Study Centre, rising oil and gas prices and the gold rush are typical increases during economic crises, indicating that gold is considered the ultimate safe haven and a risk-free asset.
Oil prices are no longer falling. The weak dollar is hampering exports. Uncertainty, fueled by events in Venezuela and Greenland, is forcing Italian families to save, slowing consumption. The recent acceleration in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) has had a positive effect, alongside a reduction in sovereign rates and debt recovery. Industry will remain volatile even until the end of 2025. Investment is the only driving force.
Overall, the Confindustria Research Centre highlights:
– “Weak” growth in the Eurozone,
– The United States performing better than expected, and
– China having achieved its growth target (GDP is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2025).
In a focus dedicated to the gold rush, the CSC highlighted the effects of “distrust” in the US. “The recent lack of confidence in the US is due to… trade policies adopted due to doubts about stability, debt (which will rise to 120% of GDP in 2025), from geopolitical tensions with other countries, internal pressures from the Fed.” These factors have given rise to a sell-off of US government bonds (in dollars), leading to an increase in Treasury yields (4.29% on the ten-year bond in 2025, higher than the 2010-2019 average of 2.40%). On the currency front, the flight from the US has weakened the dollar against the euro: the devaluation in January 2026 is 13% compared to January 2025 (in July alone it fell from 1.04 dollars per euro to 1.17 dollars per euro).
Meanwhile, the positive trend continues.
Penalizing prices in the US compared to Europe is part of the phenomenon of distrust towards US assets. Indeed, during 2025, the US stock market rallied. But – the CSC notes – significantly less than the Europeans: +14.0% compared to +20.0% in Germany and even +28.4% in Italy, although Italy’s performance has historically been weak.
The surge in gold and silver prices has also boosted mining company shares.
Meanwhile, today, the surge in gold and silver prices has benefited mining companies in global markets. In light of new records for precious metals, prices have risen. Fresnillo, Antofagasta, and Anglo American in London are rising in pre-market trading. On Wall Street, leading US companies in the sector: Newmont and Barrick Mining. The same applies to South African companies in pre-opening, listed in the US, such as Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, and Harmony Gold, as well as for Canadians like Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold, which are up nearly 4% in pre-market on Wall Street.
In the morning, gold once again set a record, surpassing the symbolic level of $5,000 to reach $5,100. The surge seen in 2025 amid market uncertainty and volatility is expected to continue. Last year, this precious metal rose 64%, its largest 12-month gain since 1979. Geopolitical tensions worldwide, from Ukraine to Greenland and Venezuela, are attracting people to this ultimate safe investment. Expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are also contributing to rising metal prices. Gold is also a major attraction due to heavy purchases by central banks and massive investments by investors in markets via ETFs as a hedge against global political risks and macroeconomic uncertainties. Gold prices have already risen more than 18% this year.
The surge in silver prices is even more significant. This share price has risen 52% in 2026 and is currently trading around $110. In 2025, its price more than doubled with a 136% surge.
Platinum, palladium, and copper prices are also showing a bullish trend, having been in the race since the start of the year. Platinum (+41%), palladium spot (+33% in 2026), while copper has gained 5%. According to traders, this upward trend increases mining companies’ revenue and margins, strengthens cash flow and balance sheets, and gives companies more scope for financing expansion, dividends, or debt reduction.
