Editor’s Note
This article highlights how surging precious metal prices are bolstering the performance of major Japanese trading houses, particularly those favored by prominent investors.
(Bloomberg) — Japanese trading house stocks held by renowned investor Warren Buffett could remain winners in 2026, buoyed by strong performance driven by soaring prices of precious metals like gold and silver.
In the international commodity markets, spot gold prices briefly hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January, while silver also reached an all-time high of $121. In the Japanese stock market, investment funds have flowed into major trading house stocks, led by Mitsubishi Corp., which is involved in energy businesses including holding interests in mines worldwide. The wholesale stock index, which includes trading houses, has risen 20% year-to-date, a rate double that of the TOPIX.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, predicts that “trading house stocks, which correlate with metal prices, will continue to perform solidly.” While short-term market adjustments are possible, she states that “the long-term outlook remains sufficiently bright, underpinned by trades anticipating currency devaluation and a global decline in confidence and demand for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries.”
Globally, fragmentation and geopolitical risks are rising, with advanced nations, in particular, facing the need to expand spending, such as on defense capabilities. Concerns over fiscal deterioration have led global investors to actively engage in “debasement trades” to hedge against currency devaluation, part of which has driven purchases of precious metals.
This trend is also influenced by wavering confidence in the U.S. dollar, particularly as former U.S. President Donald Trump has shown a series of assertive stances, including imposing additional tariffs on various countries, pressuring the Federal Reserve, and military actions against Venezuela.
David Wilson of BNP Paribas believes gold is highly likely to reach new record highs again during 2026. However, he indicated that silver may have already peaked.
Japan’s five major trading houses—Mitsubishi Corp., ITOCHU Corp., Mitsui & Co., Sumitomo Corp., and Marubeni Corp.—hold investments in overseas mines. According to a 2022 announcement, Marubeni holds approximately a 20% stake in Canada’s Valhalla Metals, which is engaged in exploration in Alaska, USA. Marubeni’s stock has risen 32% year-to-date. Mitsubishi Corp., whose mineral resources business accounts for 17% of its revenue, has seen its stock rise 36% since the start of the year, the highest performance among the five companies.
Lorraine Tan, Director of Asia Equity Research at Morningstar, analyzes that “rising commodity prices will boost the operating cash flow of the five major trading houses.” She expects “relative strength to continue” in the financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026, scheduled for early May, “against the backdrop of rising fuel and metal prices.”
However, it is also true that commodity markets are highly volatile and difficult to predict. Both gold and silver prices retreated after hitting highs in late January, with medium- to long-term volatility also trending upward.
Dillin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group, stated that the short-term performance of trading house stocks “will continue to be influenced by commodity market cycles, global demand trends, and policy headwinds such as tariffs and a global economic slowdown.”
Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has invested in the stocks of Japan’s five major trading houses and could also benefit from their rise. A near-term focus for market participants is whether Buffett’s annual shareholder letter, to be released on February 28, will mention the trading houses. Last year, the letter indicated plans to increase holdings, which led to a rise in trading house stocks after its publication.