Editor’s Note
Precious metals showed mixed performance on February 24, with gold and silver futures declining amid a stronger U.S. dollar, while platinum and palladium posted gains.
COMEX April gold futures fell $49.3 or 0.9% to $5,176.3 per ounce on February 24, as the U.S. dollar index rose 0.2%. March silver futures dropped 1.5% to $87.225 per ounce. Meanwhile, NYMEX April platinum futures rose 0.5% to $2,183 per ounce, and March palladium futures surged 3.7% to $1,841 per ounce.
said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.
The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), increased its holdings by 7.72 metric tons to 1,086.47 metric tons on the 24th. The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV), saw its holdings rise by 312.77 metric tons to 15,830.38 metric tons.
UBS forecasts gold prices could reach $6,200 by mid-2026. BMO suggests a potential rise to nearly $6,500 in a bullish scenario. AuAg Funds indicates prices might touch $6,000 within the year, albeit with significant volatility. ANZ estimates prices could reach $5,800 in the second quarter.
Analysis suggests these forecasts are not merely chasing market momentum but are based on reassessed long-term structural factors, including: continued central bank gold purchases, structurally high fiscal deficits, persistent inflation risks, unresolved geopolitical tensions, and heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy leadership.
According to the CFTC report on February 20, as of February 17, the speculative net long position in COMEX gold futures held by money managers (primarily hedge funds) and other large traders decreased 0.1% week-on-week to 159,915 contracts, hitting a two-year low.
This decline to a two-year low suggests hedge fund bullish confidence in gold has waned to a multi-year low. Despite gold prices remaining at relatively high levels, fund momentum has noticeably weakened. This phenomenon of “high prices but declining positions” may indicate a shift in market structure. On one hand, some longs may be taking profits; on the other, it may show investors shifting funds to other assets like equities or high-yield bonds.
The divergence between record-high prices and declining leveraged positions suggests the current market exhibits a “price leads, sentiment lags” structure, typically seen in mid-stage bull markets rather than bubble peaks. The fact that gold hits new highs without extreme leverage indicates the rally has more structural and sustainable potential. If global real interest rates remain low, fiscal deficits expand, central banks continue buying gold, and geopolitical risks persist, gold will maintain long-term support.
COMEX May copper futures closed up 1.9% at $5.9650 per pound on February 24.