Editor’s Note
This article highlights the divergence between stable domestic gold prices in Vietnam and recent volatility in the global market, where prices have seen significant daily declines.
On the afternoon of February 10, businesses listed the price of SJC gold bars at approximately 178 million VND/tael for buying and 181 million VND/tael for selling – stable compared to the day’s opening price.
Meanwhile, in the global market, the gold price is $5,024 per ounce, down about $25 from the start of the morning session.
Gold prices have seen continuous fluctuations in recent days, sometimes dropping by up to one hundred US dollars per ounce. Over the past two weeks, the gold price has seen a difference of thousands of US dollars per ounce, ranging from around $4,400 per ounce to a record $5,600 per ounce.
Heng Koon How, Head of Market Strategy at the Global Markets and Economic Research unit of Singapore’s UOB Bank, suggested in his latest forecast on gold prices that the market will need more time for speculative activities to subside, leading to a gradual stabilization of gold prices and the establishment of a new level.
Importantly, despite gold prices reaching unusually high levels due to short-term volatility, its role as a safe investment and portfolio diversification tool for major investor groups remains unchanged.
Globally, particularly in emerging markets and Asia, central banks are continuously increasing their strategic allocations to gold.
UOB Singapore maintains a long-term positive outlook on gold and has revised its price forecast to $4,800 per ounce in Q1 2026, which will gradually increase in subsequent quarters and peak at $5,400 per ounce in Q4 2026.
It is estimated that gold prices will reach a high of $5,400 per ounce by the end of this year.
Following the sharp rise in gold prices at the end of January 2026 and the subsequent heavy decline, many analyses and assessments have been made. Starting the year at a price above $4,300 per ounce, gold prices reached nearly $5,600 on January 28, but just two days later saw a heavy drop of nearly 10%, falling to a low of around $4,400 per ounce on February 2.
UOB experts believe that in the context of this extremely volatile two-way market, the expected volatility in gold prices has exceeded 30% – significantly higher than during the COVID-19 pandemic, though still lower than the extreme levels recorded during the global financial crisis.
Regarding the recent decline in gold prices, Mr. Heng Koon How suggested that one reason was a shortage of physical gold in many major trading centers worldwide, leading individual investors to accelerate purchases. An increase in total open positions in the COMEX gold futures market was observed, along with an unprecedented surge in trading volume of the GLD Gold ETF on the NYSE.
Earlier, in mid-January 2026, in an effort to reduce volatility, COMEX changed the margin calculation method for gold and precious metals, converting from a fixed nominal margin in USD to a percentage of the contract value. Additionally, strict measures taken by Chinese authorities and the closure of some funds have begun to reduce short-term demand for gold.
Currently, the converted global gold price according to the listed exchange rate is approximately 157.9 million VND per tael, which is 23 million VND less than the price of SJC gold bars per tael.