Editor’s Note
This report from the AGTA Gemfair in Tucson captures a pivotal moment for the colored gemstone trade, as industry leaders shift focus to underlying economic pressures. The discussion on consumer confidence signals a cautious outlook for the year ahead.
Gemworld President Stuart Robertson and GemGuide Editor-in-Chief Brecken Branstrator provided their annual update on the colored gemstone market at the AGTA Gemfair in Tucson, Arizona. This year’s presentation began on a more serious note, addressing key economic pressures.
Robertson opened the talk on February 3rd by highlighting a recent sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest level since 2014, a key indicator for independent jewelers.
He noted that high prices for household essentials make jewelry, a non-essential product, vulnerable. Consumer spending may shift towards less expensive jewelry or away from it entirely.
Robertson cited a Kiel Institute for the World Economy study finding that U.S. consumers bear 96% of the cost of tariffs. He predicted the AGTA show would be strong but not reflective of the broader market, as much of the inventory was already in the U.S. before tariffs took effect.
Conversations at the neighboring Gem & Jewelry Exchange (GJX) show revealed a different, more immediate impact. Dealers selling from existing U.S. stock fared well, while those importing goods for the show on a carnet (a temporary import document) faced significant challenges, as sold goods could not be delivered on the spot and required re-importation with full tariffs paid.
Robertson provided specific examples: a Brazilian dealer facing a 50% tariff on tourmaline and other stones, and a Sri Lankan dealer facing a 20% tariff. In both cases, the inability to provide a final price inclusive of future duty killed sales.
He noted that while U.S. imports from India (50% tariff) fell 44%, India’s overall exports were steady, indicating suppliers are simply redirecting goods to other markets.
The soaring prices of gold (double year-over-year) and silver (triple) are also impacting the industry. Robertson explained this surge is driven by investment demand as a hedge against economic uncertainty, not jewelry industry fundamentals.
As a result, some designers are turning to alternative materials like titanium and steel, even for setting higher-quality gemstones.
