Editor’s Note
This article highlights the tangible business impacts of recent tariffs, as reported by supply chain professionals. Survey data indicates significant cost increases are leading to workforce reductions and constraining investment capital, underscoring the complex economic trade-offs at play.
Rising costs associated with President Trump’s tariffs have resulted in increased layoffs and less capital for investments, according to supply chain professionals surveyed by the Association for Supply Chain Management and CNBC.
65% of survey respondents reported at least a 10%-15% increase in their supply chain costs, and businesses tell CNBC that even if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs illegal, refunds won’t recover many costs they have incurred.
A rising number of supply chain managers say that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and associated costs are leading to layoffs and lower confidence about investments needed to grow their businesses.
Double the percentage of supply chain managers (32%) are reporting layoffs as compared to April (16%), according to a new survey conducted by the Association for Supply Chain Management and CNBC.
While the national unemployment rate has only ticked higher rather than spiked since April when Trump’s broad tariffs were first introduced, job growth last year was at its lowest outside of a recession since the early 2000s, according to the December jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What some are calling a “hiring recession” is typified by rising long-term unemployment and anemic job creation, which has stalled since April.
A majority of respondents (65%) reported at least a 10-15% increase in costs, which according to ASCM, can be a “major shock” reshaping budgets, strategy, and the viability of some businesses. Thirty-four percent of those respondents cited an increase in costs greater than 15%.
While companies across the economy are anxiously awaiting a decision from the Supreme Court over the legality of many of Trump’s tariffs and the potential for refunds, Eshkenazi said broader business impacts can’t easily be reversed.
The survey of supply chain managers in sectors across the economy was conducted between Dec. 15, 2025 and Jan. 7, 2026 across over 220 respondents. It was the ASCM’s third tariffs-related survey in the past year, and the first conducted in conjunction with CNBC.
Businesses, both large and small, have told CNBC that even if court-ordered refunds recoup some of the costs resulting from Trump’s trade policy, they cannot make up for time lost due to a decrease in productivity from the added administrative hours needed to file paperwork for the expansive tariffs.
In addition to the time-consuming paperwork, business owners tell CNBC some of the costs related to tariffs would not be covered by refunds. Baby products company Lalo, which paid limited tariffs before the tariffs Trump issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, was required by U.S. Customs to put up collateral to secure customs bonds as a guarantee the company can pay the tariff bill.
These capital challenges are not unusual, according to Eshkenazi.
The price of customs bonds covers 10% of the duties and taxes paid over a rolling 12-month period.
Normally, funds are held for 314 days by Customs until the duties that were paid can be reviewed and receive government sign off.
During that period of time, the cash from the business put into the bonds does not earn any interest.
Business owners have previously told CNBC that it is unrealistic to think they will be made whole even if they are refunded tariffs by a Supreme Court decision, with many saying they are also on the hook for high-interest predatory loans taken out to pay the tariffs.
