Editor’s Note
This article explores the surprising resilience of jewelry sales, particularly during the Valentine’s season, even as the price of gold reaches historic highs. It examines the enduring appeal of precious gifts and the shifting economic forces at play in the luxury market.
This Valentine’s Day, Americans will shower their sweethearts with the usual romantic staples: flowers, chocolate and pricey dinners. But the biggest spend won’t be on roses or reservations. It will be on jewelry – roughly $7 billion worth, according to the National Retail Federation.
That sparkle comes at a striking moment. Gold prices recently hit an all-time high, briefly surpassing $5,000 an ounce — up 66% from a year ago and 300% over the past decade. Diamonds, meanwhile, have gone in the opposite direction, with prices slipping as lab-grown stones flood the market.
The jewelry industry is being reshaped by the same forces rattling the broader economy: geopolitical uncertainty, a widening income and wealth gap in the U.S. and shifting tariff policies.
But what hasn’t changed is Americans’ enduring love of bling and holiday gifts that make an impact.
The surging price of gold hasn’t dulled its appeal. Overall, U.S. jewelry sales rose 7.5% year over year in 2025, according to Tenoris, a data analytics firm that tracks the jewelry and gemstones markets.
Jewelers, for their part, are adapting. Many are designing lighter-weight or hollow pieces, blending gold with lower-cost alloys, swapping gold for platinum or silver or shifting the emphasis toward gemstones.
Gold prices are notoriously volatile, but expectations remain bullish. Investors flock to the metal as a financial safe haven during periods of economic and political uncertainty. A weaker dollar, high interest rates, geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns all helped fuel the latest gold rush, analysts said.
While gold is glittering, diamonds have lost some luster — at least in price. Lab-grown diamonds have the same chemistry, crystal structure, hardness and sparkle as mined stones but sell for far less. Their growing supply and popularity have pushed prices down across the diamond market.
In 2025, prices for high-quality smaller diamonds between 0.3 and 0.5 carats fell 20% to 26%, according to Rapaport, which publishes widely followed pricing indexes for polished diamonds. Prices for larger stones, weighing one to three carats, also declined, though less sharply. The average American engagement ring is between 1 and 2 carats, according to The Knot.
For jewelry makers, the relative costs of gold and diamonds have upended their pricing model. Elena Kriegner, a New York City-based designer, said a plain gold band can now be priced higher than a similar band encrusted with diamonds, since small chips of gold get drilled away when setting gemstones. At today’s prices, “any amount of gold is basically cash.”
Today’s jewelry market also mirrors the widening spending gap between higher- and lower-income Americans.
Sales of jewelry priced below $1,500 are down, while purchases at higher price points—above $2,500—are rising, according to Golan.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently acknowledged the spending imbalance. While many American families struggle to afford basic necessities, wealthier Americans continue to spend on luxuries.
Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that since 2023, inflation-adjusted consumption has risen for high-income households, remained flat for middle-income families and dropped for lower-income households.