Editor’s Note
The latest US employment figures have dampened expectations for a near-term interest rate hike, as job growth fell short of forecasts. This article examines the implications for monetary policy and market sentiment.
The trigger for the recent surge was the US employment data. In conclusion, concerns about a US economic slowdown have intensified, making a March rate hike extremely unlikely. The reason is that the non-farm payrolls figure released on Friday, February 5th, fell significantly short of market expectations.
While the market had anticipated an increase of 190,000 jobs, the result was only 151,000. Although the unemployment rate improved to 4.9%, the crucial pace of job growth slowed. The rationale for the Fed to continue aggressive rate hikes has collapsed.
Next, let’s examine the specific price movements in overseas markets. In conclusion, the NY gold market has broken through a key resistance level and entered a genuine upward phase. The reason is that, in addition to the weak employment data, a global decline in stocks and crude oil is accelerating investors’ “flight to quality.”
In fact, immediately after the data release, the dollar was sold while funds concentrated on gold, causing the NY gold price to surge to around
This is the highest level since last October. As major stock indices like the Dow Jones continue to show unstable movements, the demand for the safe-haven asset, gold, is becoming structural rather than temporary.
Finally, the impact on the domestic market and the action you should take. In conclusion,
Normally, domestic prices would fall if the yen strengthens to the latter half of the 116 yen per dollar range, but this time the rise in dollar-denominated gold prices is more than compensating for that, showing significant strength. In fact, the buying price at Refasta at the start of the week also maintained high levels, overcoming the negative factor of the exchange rate.
This market dynamic where “bad news (economic slowdown) pushes gold up” has momentum but also carries the risk of a significant correction. Before getting greedy and hoping for “more gains,” it is wise to cash out half of your holdings at this moment when profits are assured.
| Indicator | Value/Situation | Market Reaction |
|---|---|---|
| US Employment Data | +151,000 (Below Forecast) | Rate Hike Speculation Recedes, Gold Buying Accelerates |
| NY Gold Market | Around $1,173 per ounce | Surged to Highest Level Since Last October |
| Domestic Gold Price | Rising despite Yen at 116 per dollar | Prime Opportunity for Profit-Taking (Selling) |
That concludes this report. The US economic stall and the global risk-off trend are boosting the value of precious metals.