Editor’s Note
Today’s forex market attention is centered on three key events: the Japan-U.S. summit meeting, the release of U.S. consumer confidence data, and upcoming monetary policy announcements from both the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve. These developments are likely to drive significant currency volatility in the coming days.
Market / Event: Japan-U.S. Summit Meeting (President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meet, today 28th morning)
Market / Event: Major U.S. Corporate Earnings Releases (In full swing) → UnitedHealth, Visa, UPS, PayPal, Corning, others
Time (JST): 16:00
Country/Region: Germany
Indicator: GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
Forecast: -22.0
Previous: -22.3
Time (JST): 22:00
Country/Region: U.S.
Indicator: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index [MoM/YoY]
Forecast: -0.10% / +1.30%
Previous: -0.07% / +1.82%
Indicator: House Price Index
Forecast: -0.1%
Previous: -0.1%
Time (JST): 23:00
Country/Region: U.S.
Indicator: Consumer Confidence Index
Forecast: 93.4
Previous: 94.2
Indicator: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -12
Previous: -17
Time (JST): 26:00
Country/Region: U.S.
Event: 7-Year Note Auction
Amount: $44 billion
Attention today will be on the U.S. economic indicators and events at:
・22:00 JST: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
・22:00 JST: U.S. House Price Index
・23:00 JST: U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
・26:00 JST: U.S. 7-Year Note Auction
Other significant factors include:
・Japan-U.S. Summit Meeting (President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meet, today 28th morning)
・Major U.S. corporate earnings releases (in full swing) → UnitedHealth, Visa, UPS, PayPal, Corning, others
・October month-end factors (October 31st, this weekend, is the last business day of the month)
・U.S.-China Summit Meeting on the 30th (Thu) (President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet)
・Speculation on U.S. monetary policy (policy announcement scheduled for this week on October 29th)
・Speculation on Japanese monetary policy (policy announcement scheduled for this week on October 30th)
・Outlook for U.S.-China trade issues (U.S.-China summit scheduled for this week on October 30th)
・Remarks by U.S. President Trump
・Speculation on the policies and direction of the Sanae Takaichi administration
・Movements in U.S. Treasury yields (U.S. long-term interest rates)
・Statements by financial authorities and key figures (Fed Chair Powell’s press conference after the U.S. monetary policy announcement on the 29th; BOJ Governor Ueda’s press conference after the Japanese monetary policy announcement on the 30th)
・Major U.S. corporate earnings releases (this week includes Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon)
・Direction of the U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Euro
・Movements in major stock markets (centered on the U.S.)
・Speculation on Eurozone monetary policy (policy announcement scheduled for this week on October 30th)
・Release of high-impact U.S. economic indicators (many U.S. indicators are pending due to government shutdown)
・Impact of the partial U.S. government shutdown and outlook for stopgap funding
・Speculation on the Ukraine situation and worsening U.S.-Russia relations (possibility of significant U.S. sanctions on Russia)
・Movements in commodity markets, centered on crude oil and gold.
The forex market started the week at levels similar to last Friday’s close, followed by strong yen-selling pressure and choppy trading. Subsequently, the Euro was bought modestly in European and U.S. markets, and the U.S. Dollar was sold towards the NY close. USD/JPY fluctuated between the high 152-yen and low 153-yen range, while EUR/USD rose to the mid-1.16-dollar level.
Today, the Japan-U.S. Summit Meeting (today, 28th, morning), speculation on U.S. monetary policy (policy announcement this week on the 29th), speculation on Japanese monetary policy (policy announcement this week on the 30th), the upcoming U.S.-China Summit Meeting on the 30th (Thu), and remarks by U.S. President Trump will be crucial.
Additionally, attention should be paid to the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, speculation on the policies of the Sanae Takaichi administration, movements in major stock markets and U.S. Treasury yields, speculation on Eurozone monetary policy (this week, 30th), the direction of the USD, JPY, and EUR, and the impact of the partial U.S. government shutdown and stopgap funding outlook.
▼ October 29th (Wed)
・Month-end spot settlement date (settlement in 2 business days. The 31st is the last day of the month)
Australia: Consumer Price Index
Canada: BoC Monetary Policy Decision & Governor Macklem Press Conference
U.S.: FOMC Monetary Policy Decision & Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
※ U.S. economic indicators are minor.
※ Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta earnings after U.S. market close.
▼ October 30th (Thu)
・Approaching month-end (The 31st is the last day of the month)
・U.S.-China Summit Meeting
Japan: BOJ Monetary Policy Decision & Governor Ueda Press Conference
Europe: ECB Monetary Policy Decision & President Lagarde Press Conference
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims (※ Pending due to U.S. government shutdown ※)
U.S.: Q2 GDP [Preliminary] (※ Pending due to U.S. government shutdown ※)
※ Apple, Amazon earnings after U.S. market close.
▼ October 31st (Fri)
・Last day of October
Japan: Tokyo CPI (Core)
U.S.: PCE Deflator (※ Pending due to U.S. government shutdown ※)
