Editor’s Note
India has raised total import duties on gold and silver from nearly 6% to around 15%, a move likely to boost domestic prices and pressure jewellery firms in the short term.
India has sharply increased the total import duty on gold and silver from nearly 6% to around 15%. The move is expected to push domestic gold prices higher and create short term pressure for jewellery companies.
The government has raised the import duty on gold and silver from 5% to 10%. At present, imports attract 5% Basic Customs Duty along with 1% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess, taking the total duty to nearly 6%.
After the revision, imports will attract 10% Basic Customs Duty along with 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess. This takes the total import duty to nearly 15%.
The government has also increased the duty on gold imported from the United Arab Emirates under a fixed quota system. Earlier, gold imported under this quota attracted concessional duty rates.
The government wants to reduce gold imports as part of efforts to stabilise the currency. Higher import duty increases the landed cost of gold, which may discourage purchases of bullion and jewellery.
The move is expected to reduce gold imports in the coming months. However, cautious need based buying for weddings and important occasions is likely to continue.
This is expected to be a temporary measure while global uncertainties remain high.
Domestic bullion prices are expected to open sharply higher after the increase in import tariffs.
A nearly 9% jump in duty is likely to increase the landed cost of gold and silver. As a result, prices in the domestic market may move higher in the near term.
The research report expects MCX Gold June to move in the range of ₹160,000 to ₹168,500. A move above ₹168,500 may push prices towards ₹171,000.
MCX Silver July is expected to rise towards ₹300,000-₹305,000 level as long as it holds above ₹270,000 level
The increase in import duty is expected to be negative for jewellery companies in the short term.
Higher gold prices could affect demand for jewellery purchases. Even so, demand linked to weddings and important occasions may continue because these purchases are often necessary.
International gold prices are facing pressure from a strong dollar and rising global treasury yields.
Spot gold is expected to face resistance near $4770 and may move towards $4650.
Higher crude oil prices are increasing inflation concerns across global markets. This may reduce the chances of rate cuts by major central banks.
According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this year stands at only 5% because inflation concerns remain strong.
At the same time, safe haven demand for gold may support prices as the United States and Iran have not reached an agreement to end the war.