Editor’s Note
While India’s diamond exports show an overall decline, recent data hints at a potential turnaround for the beleaguered natural diamond sector. This analysis looks beyond the headline figures to examine the emerging signs of recovery.
India’s natural diamond industry, battered by global economic headwinds for the past two years and, more recently, punitive US tariffs, is showing the first flickers of recovery. According to Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) data released on October 14, exports of cut and polished diamonds—predominantly natural stones—dipped 9.57 per cent overall to $6.25 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2025-26 (April to September). Yet, beneath this headline decline is a tale of gradual resurgence: a 5.91 per cent uptick in September alone to $1.37 billion, signalling the industry’s pivot away from traditional markets and towards emerging hubs.
The United States, once a crown jewel in India’s export portfolio, has become a thorn. For April-September 2025, overall exports to the US declined 40.28 per cent to $2,770.66 million while exports of cut and polished diamonds fell 53.62 per cent to $1,175.09 million, compared to the same period last year, notes the GJEPC report.
Meanwhile, rather than crumble, Indian exporters are sidestepping these barriers with savvy redirection, channelling their gems to friendlier shores where demand is surging. Efforts to develop the affluent United Arab Emirates (UAE) market and revive Hong Kong have given an early fillip to India’s diamond trade.
Shipments to the UAE skyrocketed 65.23 per cent to $1.3 billion, transforming Dubai into a bustling global trading hub for natural diamonds. This boom is fuelled by the UAE’s strategic position as a gateway to Middle Eastern and African markets, where affluent buyers seek high-quality stones amid rising investor confidence in gold and gems as safe-haven assets.
Exports to Saudi Arabia witnessed a growth of 124.1 per cent, reaching $128.90 million. Similarly, exports to Hong Kong climbed 18.08 per cent to $2.057 billion, driven by a rebound in demand from jewellery manufacturers and retailers gearing up for Asia’s festive rush.
The United Kingdom also emerges as a key player, with overall gold jewellery exports (often studded with diamonds) rising 17.01 per cent to $155.5 million, thanks to steady retail appetite and admiration for India’s intricate designs. The broader strategy is diversification away from US dependence towards markets less encumbered by tariffs and more aligned with cultural celebrations.
The timing adds the perfect icing. India’s festive and wedding seasons are ramping up among the diaspora while international holiday shopping for Christmas and New Year spurs demand in hubs like Hong Kong and the UAE.
However, during the April-September 2025 period, exports of Polished Lab-Grown Diamonds declined 7.99 per cent to $586.63 million. The per-carat export value during the period stood at $58.66, consistent with global pricing trends amidst increased production and inventory corrections.
After a 40 per cent correction over the last two years, the value of natural diamonds held steady in the latest quarter, with diamantaires heaving a sigh of relief in India.