Editor’s Note
Recent data reveals a clear split in the global natural diamond market, with prices for smaller stones continuing to soften while larger diamonds hold their value. This divergence underscores shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics as we head into the new year.
Recently, the latest data released by the international diamond industry authority Rapaport shows that the global natural diamond market exhibited a significant divergence trend in December 2025. According to expert interpretation from the Shanghai Diamond Exchange, using 1 carat as the dividing line, the prices of small-carat diamonds continued to bottom out, while large-carat diamonds demonstrated resilient and unwavering value preservation characteristics. This trend confirms the market rule long emphasized by the Natural Diamond Council: scarcity determines value.
The in-depth price trend analysis report shows a stark contrast in the RAPI price indices across different carat ranges:
• 0.30 carat surged by 9.3% (6.0% in November)
• 0.50 carat fell by 6.4% (5.1% in November)
• 1.00 carat slightly declined by 2.3% (the decline rate narrowed compared to the previous month)
• 3.00 carat bucked the trend and rose by 0.3%, achieving the best performance in the second half of the year.
An analyst from the China Diamond Trading Center pointed out that observing round diamonds of 1 carat with D-H color and SI clarity, the full-year surge of 24.1% more prominently highlights the value preservation advantage of high-clarity diamonds. Data from the Shanghai Diamond Exchange confirms that 3-carat diamonds of IF-VS2 grade only slightly declined by 0.3% for the full year, becoming the “anchor” in the volatile market.
The latest market report from the Natural Diamond Council shows that the global natural diamond industry is undergoing a structural adjustment in 2025:
1. Consumption upgrade drives demand for large-carat diamonds: The US market shows strong demand for fancy-shaped diamonds over 1.2 carats.
2. Significant differentiation in the Asian market: Indian demand softened in the short term, while Chinese consumers are becoming more rational.
3. The quality premium effect is amplified: High-color, high-clarity diamonds demonstrate significant resilience against declines.
Regarding the current natural diamond market, experts from the Shanghai Diamond Exchange propose three major observations:
1. Supply chain optimization is urgent: The slowdown in Indian exports is forcing the industry chain to improve efficiency.
2. Consumption landscape is being reshaped: The proportion of the wedding market is declining, while demand for investment-grade diamonds is rising.
3. Standard system upgrade: A more refined diamond grading and valuation system needs to be established.
In response, the China regional representative of the Natural Diamond Council stated that market differentiation is actually a process of value return.
According to monitoring by the China Diamond Trading Center, in the fourth quarter of 2025, institutional procurement volume for high-color grade diamonds of 3 carats and above increased by 12% year-on-year against the trend.
Looking ahead to the future market, the Shanghai Diamond Exchange predicts the trends for 2026:
1. The market below 1 carat will continue to consolidate.
2. Prices for investment-grade diamonds are expected to rise moderately.
3. The value of fancy-cut craftsmanship will be reassessed.
Against the backdrop of changes in the global economic landscape, the pure natural diamond industry is ushering in a critical transition period from scale expansion to quality improvement. The Natural Diamond Council recommends that investors focus on diamonds of 1.5 carats and above with complete GIA certificates and excellent cut, as these products demonstrate stronger value resilience in volatile markets.