Editor’s Note
Recent customs data reveals a significant surge in China’s natural diamond imports, with values up over 40% year-on-year. However, the market is experiencing a clear price divergence: larger-carat stones are appreciating while smaller diamonds face downward pressure. This trend highlights shifting consumer preferences and a nuanced recovery in the luxury sector.
In 2025, while the import volume of natural diamonds in China has been soaring, diamond prices are showing a clear divergence trend of “larger carat diamonds moving upward, smaller carat diamonds moving downward.” The latest data from Shanghai Customs shows that in the first eight months of this year, the value of natural polished diamond imports through the Shanghai Diamond Exchange’s general trade reached 2.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.5%. Data from the Shanghai Diamond Exchange indicates that in the first half of this year, imports of 1-2 carat diamonds grew by 127% year-on-year, with 35% of them used for investment purposes.
Over the past few years, diamond prices have experienced significant fluctuations. In 2021 and 2022, natural diamond prices briefly reached historical highs. In 2023, natural diamond prices saw a relatively large decline compared to previous high levels, and have since entered a relatively stable phase. This year, the October Rapaport (an international company that publishes diamond price lists) natural diamond price report shows that price reductions for 0.30-carat and 0.50-carat diamonds were particularly prominent, while 3.00-carat diamonds saw a slight price increase. In terms of trading, transactions for diamonds below 1.20 carats have slowed down, while prices for diamonds of 2 carats and above have remained stable.
At the end of 2024, the reference overview released by the Shanghai Diamond Exchange predicted that the natural diamond price index is expected to grow by 3%-5% annually over the next decade, with stronger growth expected after 2027, especially for investment-grade diamonds of 5 carats and above, which hold significant appeal for potential investors.
On November 20, Lin Qiang, President of the Shanghai Diamond Exchange, stated in an interview with Economic Observer that since the beginning of this year, member companies have generally reported that the overall demand for natural diamonds is steadily, gently, and recovering.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the scarcity of natural diamonds will not change. It can be foreseen that as the market returns to rationality and consumer education deepens, natural diamond prices will maintain a healthy upward trend in the medium to long term.
Economic Observer: In recent years, larger carat natural diamonds have maintained strong value, while smaller carat natural diamonds have been declining. What factors have contributed to this market phenomenon?
Lin Qiang:
In comparison, the supply of smaller carat diamonds is relatively sufficient, and their design and price are more likely to meet daily wear needs, making their market price fluctuations more flexible. This does not affect their popularity; on the contrary, it allows natural diamonds to cover more consumption scenarios—from high-end investment to daily wear—meeting the needs of different consumers.
Economic Observer: Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have continuously hit new historical highs. How do you view the value difference between diamonds and gold?
Lin Qiang:
Economic Observer: Multiple national research institutions have suggested that global trade may be relatively sluggish in the next two years, and domestic marriage rates are also declining. Against this backdrop, what impacts might natural diamond prices face?
Lin Qiang:
Although the short-term market may be disturbed by the macroeconomic environment, in the long run, the limited resource nature of natural diamonds determines that their long-term value foundation remains solid.
Economic Observer: Lab-grown diamond manufacturing technology is continuously developing. What impact does this have on natural diamond consumption?
Lin Qiang:
Economic Observer: In terms of cooperation with upstream and downstream partners, what progress has the Shanghai Diamond Exchange made since the beginning of this year?
Lin Qiang:
Economic Observer: What are the characteristics of the current target consumer groups for diamonds in China?
Lin Qiang:
In recent years, purchasing scenarios and motivations have become more diversified. Consumption is no longer limited to wedding scenarios but has expanded to daily wear, personal rewards, and life commemoration. At the same time, younger groups also have higher awareness and concern for the stories, cultural connotations, and sustainability concepts behind natural diamonds.
Economic Observer: In recent years, what channels has the Shanghai Diamond Exchange used to enhance the influence of natural diamonds?
Lin Qiang: