Editor’s Note
This article highlights LVMH’s strong Q3 2025 performance, driven by a resurgence in Chinese demand and a recovery in champagne sales, which fueled a significant stock price increase.
LVMH shares have surged on the stock market, boosted by a positive surprise in its third-quarter 2025 accounts. Investors in the CAC 40 leader and global luxury giant can celebrate. After three years of weak luxury goods sales in China (a key market for the sector), LVMH’s customers in the Middle Kingdom are “making a comeback,” notes eToro, which adds that LVMH also benefited from a certain recovery in champagne division sales.
Upon reviewing LVMH’s third-quarter 2025 accounts, the Fashion & Leather Goods division (including the Louis Vuitton brand, which shows signs of stabilization) saw its sales contract (-2%) in Q3, but this revenue decline is not comparable to the previous quarter’s (-9%). The vitality of Dior and Guerlain significantly benefited the Perfumes & Cosmetics division, while Tiffany (the jewelry brand acquired a few years ago) benefited from its iconic pieces and store renovations, “with openings in Milan and especially in Tokyo,” notes the broker.
The weakness in demand for luxury goods in China is easing. While Chinese consumers have long been reluctant to spend, against a backdrop of falling real estate and Chinese stock prices, the situation has changed as the decline in property prices is slowing (amid support measures from Beijing) and Chinese stocks have soared in recent months (leading to a certain wealth effect). Hence the idea that the second half of 2025 could be quite positive for LVMH’s accounts. Furthermore, for 2026, there is the prospect of a “creative renewal” for LVMH’s Fashion and Leather Goods division, highlights OddoBHF. However, caution is advised, as the negative impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on global economic growth is yet to come. Thus, an acceleration in luxury goods sales is only expected in the second half of 2026, according to UBS.
LVMH still faces challenges. The CAC 40’s luxury leader can rely on the strength of a diversified portfolio of desirable brands, its focus on the high-end segment, maintaining abundant cash flow (strong cash flow over time), its good management, and its ability to withstand economic cycle fluctuations. Exchange rate effects (dollar decline) could continue to affect LVMH’s results. And the fashion market could suffer from an economic growth slowdown (which seems to be emerging in the United States, an important luxury market). Furthermore, the surge in gold prices “could reduce the margins of the jewelry division” of LVMH, notes eToro, which adds that, in the medium term, LVMH will also need to “maintain its pace of innovation while controlling costs, in a sector where competition from Hermès and Richemont (Cartier brand) remains fierce.” And in China, some local luxury brands are favored by customers.
The financial community is now more cautious about the potential of LVMH shares. According to financial analysis, the fair price of LVMH shares is 585 euros (according to Oddo BHF) or 620 euros (according to Morningstar), which now leaves only limited upside potential at the current price of 600 euros, at least in the immediate term. But the sales potential of luxury brands (including LVMH) in China seems promising, in the eyes of Morningstar, which adds that:
Hence the idea that in the medium and long term, LVMH shares retain good appreciation potential on the stock market.
And what are the prospects for LVMH shares on the stock market according to technical analysis (graphical and mathematical analysis of stock price movements)?
