Editor’s Note
This article highlights the short-term pressures on gold prices from easing geopolitical and trade tensions, while noting the structural supports that have kept the metal in a historically high range this year.
In the final week of June 2025, the gold price fell below $3,270 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of 3%.
The continuation of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the agreement in U.S.-China trade talks have strengthened risk-on sentiment.
Both the U.S. and China have significantly lowered tariffs, leading to a temporary retreat in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Central bank net purchases and expectations of Fed rate cuts are providing underlying support for the gold price.
Despite a $200 drop from the $3,500 level in April, gold maintains a year-to-date increase of over 25%.
As of June 27, the USD/JPY rate hovered around 144.3 yen, reaching its highest level in two weeks.
U.S. GDP contracted by 0.5%, and an increase in unemployment insurance claims signaled an economic slowdown.
Expectations for Fed rate cuts in the latter half of the year persist, alongside President Trump’s intention to nominate a dovish Fed chair candidate.
In Japan, Tokyo Core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year, raising the possibility of additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Dollar-weakening factors and yen-strengthening factors are clashing, leaving the market in a stalemate.
On June 27, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 4.26%.
The Core PCE Price Index rose 2.8% year-on-year, highlighting concerns about persistent inflation.
Expectations for rate cuts continue due to negative GDP growth and rising unemployment.
Market attention is focused on the upcoming FOMC meetings and price statistics from July onward.
Gold, while undergoing short-term adjustments, remains in a high price range.
The USD/JPY lacks a clear direction, and the U.S. 10-year yield is caught in a tug-of-war between the economy and inflation.
Those considering selling bullion or jewelry should make decisions based on the latest market conditions.
Feel free to contact Refasta for appraisals or consultations.