Global Fine Art Auction Market Continues to “Cool Down”

The sales performance of major international auction houses has long been regarded as a “barometer” of the global art market. In particular, the popularity and transaction status of the spring and autumn auctions held annually by leading auction houses are seen by industry insiders as indicative of the current trends in the art market.
After experiencing two consecutive years of growth in 2021 and 2022, the global fine art public auction market showed signs of “cooling down” in 2023. Although private sales by auction houses maintained some growth, the total transaction value of public auctions declined significantly year-on-year. The number of artworks priced above $10 million was greatly reduced, leading to a sharp drop in the overall market value of fine art. Looking at the auction season in the first half of 2024, the “chill” seems to be continuing.

Recently, Christie’s, one of the world’s top three auction houses, released its global performance report for the first half of 2024. Affected by multiple factors such as weak global economic growth expectations, geopolitical changes, insufficient market investment confidence, and market volatility and adjustments in the art market, the overall transaction volume of leading auction houses in the first half of this year showed a stable but declining trend.
Against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth and poor retail industry performance, Christie’s global auction total for the first half of 2024 was $2.1 billion, a 22% decrease from $2.7 billion in the same period last year, not to mention the global auction total for the first half of 2022, which once reached $3.5 billion. It is worth noting that in the performance report, Christie’s did not provide private sales data for the first half of this year as in previous years, but stated that “private purchases in all regions performed strongly and attracted new buyers.”
Among the top 10 highest-priced artworks sold globally in the period, Christie’s accounted for six, and featured six important collections from prominent collectors, with an auction success rate of 87% (consistent with last year). In an unstable macro environment, the provenance of collections can be said to be a golden guarantee of buyer confidence. Among them, the collection of the late Italian artist Amedeo Modigliani achieved a total transaction value of $60.2 million; the collection of designer Rosa de la Cruz (100% sold) achieved a total transaction value of $34.4 million; the collection of the late artist Joan Miró achieved a total transaction value of $20.5 million; artworks from the collection of the late artist Francis Bacon achieved a total transaction value of $19.1 million; the collection of the late Brazilian artist Beatriz Milhazes achieved a total transaction value of €73 million, setting new world auction records for African art, Oceanic art, and American art categories; and prominent collections such as the private service and first-order formula racing car of the late driver Ayrton Senna also achieved remarkable results, contributing highlights to the overall flat data.
In terms of other indicators such as total hammer price versus low estimate ratio, online bidding ratio, and younger generation clients (Millennials and Gen Z), Christie’s performance remained stable. As Christie’s CEO Guillaume Cerutti pointed out:

Christie’s will also focus on exhibitions in the second half of this year. In September this year, Christie’s will open a new Asia-Pacific headquarters in The Henderson, Hong Kong, China. In the future, it will operate year-round like its New York and London headquarters, and will hold various art-related activities outside of auction previews. The auction schedule will also connect globally. In addition, Christie’s will also hold a new series of auctions in New York in September, featuring the collection of the late Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. Subsequent plans for large-scale 20th and 21st century art auctions in Paris, London, New York, and Hong Kong will also be announced.

Facing a series of objective factor impacts, Christie’s is not the only auction house affected. According to Sotheby’s, which also recently announced its half-year performance report, the first half of this year was also a period of “encountering cold” in sales.
In the first half of 2024, Sotheby’s global auction total transaction value was approximately $3.73 billion, an 8.8% decrease from the $4.09 billion global auction total transaction value in the first half of 2023, while the global auction total transaction value in the first half of 2022 was $5.9 billion. Sotheby’s global auction average total transaction rate reached 87%, showing a slight recovery compared to the 89% global auction total transaction rate in the same period last year. Similarly, Sotheby’s performance report did not mention specific numbers related to private sales.
In the first half of 2024, Sotheby’s featured multiple important collections from prominent sources across different categories, including: the old collection of Italian collector Francesco Sciancalepore, the limited edition painting collection of the well-known technology company founder, the watch collection of the late Italian scholar, the work collection of the late American pop artist Roy Lichtenstein, and the precious stone works of the renowned fashion photographer, all of which achieved good transactions.
What is most noteworthy is the performance of Sotheby’s jewelry auctions in its half-year report. Looking back at recent global jewelry auctions, colored diamonds and colored gemstones have consistently achieved excellent results, showing the current jewelry market’s sustained strong demand for rare and high-quality colored gemstones and colored diamonds. Sotheby’s has focused on developing its jewelry business in the past two years, increasing jewelry auctions during important auction seasons in global high-end jewelry and watches last year, promoting significant growth in the transaction results of the jewelry department. The report shows that Sotheby’s global jewelry auction total transaction value in the first half of 2024 increased by a significant 191% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the highest-priced lot was a 6.21-carat fancy intense pink diamond ring, which sold for HK$108.6 million (approximately RMB 90.01 million), topping all categories in this year’s Hong Kong spring auction season.
In addition, Sotheby’s also performed well in its very strong watch auction sector. Its watch department showed strong performance in Hong Kong, New York, and Geneva auctions. In the first half of this year, 11 watches were sold globally for over one million US dollars. The total transaction value of watch auctions held in Geneva and New York led other auction houses, with New York’s watch auctions achieving the excellent result of a “white glove” 100% sell-out rate for three consecutive half-years.
On August 20 last year, Sotheby’s officially launched the new e-commerce platform Dropshop.