【日本】Auctions: 6 Key Takeaways from the Spring-Summer Watch Auctions in Geneva, Hong Kong, and New York

This Tuesday afternoon, the final hammer fell at Sotheby’s on York Avenue in Manhattan, marking the end of the spring-to-early-summer auction season. Now that the major sales by the four leading auction houses around the world have concluded, we can finally digest the results. The end of this spring-summer season, along with the winter auction season, is the perfect time to step back and calmly analyze the ever-moving collector’s watch market.

It may not be surprising, but collectors tend to lose their rationality when encountering references or individual pieces they’ve never seen before. This view might seem clichéd and overused, but it’s an unavoidable key lesson from this auction season. The term “fresh-to-market” can carry several different meanings in auction catalogs. A prime example from last month is the platinum Vacheron Constantin Minute Repeater Ref. 6448 offered by Phillips in Geneva. This piece was a previously unknown variation within a known and highly collectible reference, a unique platinum piece. Coming to market from the family of the original owner in Mexico, the watch ultimately sold for approximately three times its high estimate at $848,840.

“Fresh” can also simply mean a piece from a mass-produced reference that has never before appeared on the market. For instance, last weekend at Phillips’ New York auction, a stainless steel Patek Philippe Ref. 570 sold for $1,066,800. The fierce bidding war was undoubtedly fueled by the case’s perfect condition and un-restored dial, but above all, the fact that this piece was “fresh-to-market” significantly boosted its value. A Ref. 570 with a steel case and a three-tone Breguet numeral dial is a grail in itself. However, this new example redefined the condition standard for the known examples of this model, thrilling collectors. It was something no one had ever seen before, yet also in the best possible condition. That is precisely why this watch surpassed the million-dollar mark.

For nearly a decade, the Patek Philippe Perpetual Calendar Chronograph Ref. 5970 has been the darling of collectors. Hailed as the “last Lemania,” its appeal has been discussed repeatedly. However, in recent years, a shift in collector trends has emerged, moving towards its sibling, the Ref. 3970. A high-profile example was a special-order white gold Ref. 3970EG-028 from 2007 sold by Christie’s in Geneva for $1,046,423, setting a new auction record for the reference. The previous “record” was a special-order salmon dial Ref. 3970EG owned by Eric Clapton, which sold for $784,619 in 2021. While the Clapton watch arguably had more highlights, the past few months have seen three platinum second-generation Ref. 3970s appear at auction—a rare model with only about a dozen known examples. The current price surge is concentrated on special orders, first-generation, and second-generation models, but nearly all Ref. 3970s are significantly more expensive than they were three years ago.

Closely related to the Ref. 3970 is another complex Patek Philippe, the Ref. 5004, which adds a split-seconds function. While the Ref. 5004 has always been and will likely remain a very expensive watch, it also seems to be catching some of the current tailwind favoring complex 36mm Patek Philippes. For example, the most common variation, Ref. 5004P-021, sold at Phillips last weekend for $381,000, exceeding its high estimate. This clearly shows an upward trend compared to a similar piece selling for $260,366 at Sotheby’s last November.

F.P. Journe is now a staple in every major auction house catalog, though those closely tracking the market might have noticed a peak about two years ago. To be clear, prices have remained high in recent years. However, the previous steep upward momentum has somewhat moderated, with more standard Journe models settling into relatively stable price ranges. For instance, acquiring a Chronomètre Bleu on the current general market would cost around $100,000—a level that has remained unchanged for a while, contrasting with the $40,000–$60,000 range in 2021.

Now, the most attention is on truly “special” early works from the brand and watches from other brands related to Journe. For example, at Phillips New York, a 2014 F.P. Journe Tourbillon Anniversaire Histoire “T30” sold for $889,000.