Editor’s Note
As the world’s leading luxury group, LVMH’s portfolio of 75 storied houses—from Louis Vuitton to Hennessy—makes it a bellwether for global high-end consumer demand and craftsmanship. Its performance and strategic moves are closely watched as indicators of broader economic and sector trends.
LVMH is the world’s leading luxury group, with global brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dior, Loro Piana, and Celine in Fashion & Leather Goods; Hennessy in cognac; Krug, Moët & Chandon, and Veuve Clicquot in champagne; Tiffany, Bulgari, or Tag Heuer in watches and jewelry; and Guerlain in perfumes. The group houses 75 craft houses.
In 2023, the group achieved revenue of €86.15 billion, generating an operating profit of €22.80 billion and a net profit of €15.17 billion.
Facing a slowdown in its markets, particularly in the United States and China, LVMH’s sales stagnated at €60.75 billion for the first nine months of 2024, even recording a 3% decline at constant exchange rates during the third quarter.
Recently, reassuring publications from Richemont and Burberry have allowed luxury stock prices to regain some color. After falling nearly 12% in 2024, LVMH’s stock has rebounded 13% since the beginning of the year, compared to a 7% increase for the Paris stock exchange.
According to the FactSet consensus, fourth-quarter sales are expected to reach €23.34 billion, representing an organic decline of 2% year-on-year. They are expected to gradually recover in 2025 (+0% expected in Q1 2025 and +4.9% for the year).
For 2024, analysts on average forecast annual revenue of €84.02 billion, a current operating profit of €20.33 billion, and a net profit of €13.51 billion.
Has the Fashion & Leather Goods division reached a low point, allowing for a gradual sales recovery in 2025?
Are consumers in China and the United States returning to stores sufficiently?
Has the Wines & Spirits division reached a low point? What will be the impact on the group’s margins?
In Q3 2024, the group recorded a 3% contraction in sales at constant scope and exchange rates compared to the same period the previous year.
In the fourth quarter, analysts expect a 2% decline, including -3.3% for the Fashion & Leather Goods division. Some analysts wonder if, after years of very strong growth, consumers are not discouraged by price increases and are showing some “fatigue.”
BNP Paribas Exane analysts believe the Louis Vuitton brand shows resilience thanks to product innovation and solid execution.
For these observers, two central concerns are the sales momentum of Dior and the numerous managerial changes observed last year.
The Asia region excluding Japan represents the group’s largest market in terms of revenue, accounting for 30% of sales in the first half of 2024 (latest known figures).
This is even more true for the Fashion & Leather Goods division, which is LVMH’s primary business segment and its most profitable pole, with global brands like Louis Vuitton or Dior. In the first half of 2024, this division generated 38% of its sales in the region (and 13% in Japan), compared to 16% in the United States and 24% in Europe.
Given the difficult economic situation in China, the main outlet for most luxury groups, analysts will focus their attention on the state of Chinese consumer confidence and the evolution of traffic in the group’s stores in mainland China, as well as in duty-free stores or other countries in the region.
