Editor’s Note
This article examines the immediate market turbulence and potential long-term restructuring of the global gold trade following new U.S. tariffs on key bullion bar imports.
09/08/2025
Markets
The recent decision by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to apply reciprocal tariffs on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bullion bars is triggering a major shock in the international market. These formats, pillars of trade in New York and on the Comex, are now subject to duties reaching up to 39% in the case of Switzerland, one of the largest suppliers, according to a CBP letter leaked to Bloomberg.
The industry, which initially expected an exemption, is reorganizing supply chains and reviewing contracts. Gold futures in New York reached record highs, with a premium of over $100 per ounce compared to the London benchmark price, reflecting market tension.
The measure threatens to disrupt flows from key hubs such as Switzerland, Hong Kong, and London, and raises questions about whether the tariff will also apply to 400-ounce bars, the basis of London trade. The origin of the ruling was an inquiry from a Swiss refinery, which might be forced to recast bullion to meet U.S. market requirements.
U.S. gold imports had already peaked at 43 tons in January 2025, nearly double the monthly local refining capacity (22 tons), in anticipation of restrictive measures. Following the announcement, several Asian refineries have suspended shipments pending greater clarity.
On the political front, Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter traveled to Washington to try to halt the tariff but failed to meet with President Donald Trump, the architect of the duty scheme that has already caused tensions in other metals, such as copper.
The premium in New York (+100 USD/oz) makes deliverable gold on the Comex more expensive and could translate into additional costs of up to $3.2 million per 1-ton shipment.
December futures contracts already reflect expectations of physical supply shortages.
For Switzerland, with a 39% tariff, the additional cost per ton of gold exceeds $20 million at current prices, which could make certain shipments unviable.
Asian and Swiss refineries will have to decide between absorbing the cost or diverting exports to other markets.
Recasting bullion to meet specifications could increase operational costs by 15% to 25%, in addition to creating bottlenecks due to limited refining capacity in the U.S.
Mining and refining companies with high exposure to the U.S. market could see their stock prices pressured if the measure is prolonged.
High volatility in the NY-London premium.
Increase in arbitrage operations between markets, benefiting traders with fast refining and transport capacity.
Potential structural diversion of exports to Asia and the Middle East.
Increase in bilateral agreements outside the U.S. to avoid tariffs.
Risk of the Comex losing relevance if access to deliverable bullion is compromised.
Potential legal challenge that, if successful, could reverse the measure and normalize prices.